http://www.casualhoya.com/2010/7/31/1598100/friday-night-lights-laboring-recap
This is my weekly recap of Friday Night Lights. If you like it, tell your friends. If you don't like, keep it to yourself, you big jerk.
I hope if you click on the title, it will take you to the website.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Friday Night
http://www.casualhoya.com/2010/7/24/1585571/friday-night-lights-injury-list
I found this thing I wrote earlier today, just sitting there on the Internet. It wasn't doing anything, so if you're not doing anything... maybe you can hang out with it for awhile.
It's a recap of the Friday Night Lights episode "Injury List" that aired on NBC on Friday, July 23, 2010 at 8:00 p.m. EST. Hope you enjoy.
Cheers,
ME
Friday, July 9, 2010
Dream Team?
Dear reader,
I am surprised by LeBron's choice to go to Miami. I previously explained my take on his different options. After hearing his Decision, even after ESPN's warning, my first thought was how horrible this ordeal was for the city of Cleveland. My next thought was that LeBron was foregoing a potential legacy as a top 5 player of all time in exchange to play a super-charged Scottie Pippen to Dwayne Wade's lesser Michael Jordan. I went through the stages of grieving even though nobody died, nobody was gone forever and heck, I'm not even a Cavs fan. I can only imagine what Cleveland was going through. The only thing I lost was-some degree of respect for a young man I greatly appreciated. But now, with some time to process most of my feelings on the matter, I sought an outlet to relay some of my racing thoughts.
In Defense of LeBron James:
Let's start with the fact that LeBron raised millions of dollars for charity. Sure, he created a spectacle that was the height of hubris, but he channeled that spectacle for a good cause. Let's not forget this act of charity, even in the darkest corners of our minds.
Further, despite the fury directed towards LeBron, he committed no crime. He was accused of committing no crime. Nothing he did was against the law, nor was it against some societal norm. There was no accusation that he cheated on his wife like many other athletes have, even if Cleveland fans feel cheated. He violated no contract; his contract expired and he decided to take a different job. Gosh-darned it, he didn't even lie about any of it. At no point did he make any commitment to his fans that he would play the rest of his career in Cleveland. At most, he said he would like to or love to finish his career in Cleveland, but he always qualified those statements with his primary goal of winning championships... but we'll get to that soon enough.
He forfeited money to play in Miami. A rough estimate is that LeBron could have made a salary of $125 million to sign with Cleveland than any other team. To sign anywhere else, the maximum salary he could make is $30 million less (with one less year.) That's $30 million in guaranteed money. By playing in Miami, alongside Wade and Bosh, he has to take even more of a pay cut, at least another $5 million off the amount they could pay him... $35 million less guaranteed salary than he could make in Cleveland. As I mentioned in my previous post, there are caveats to these salary estimates.
1) LeBron will likely play more than 5 years at a very high level and thus that 6th (extra) year he will likely be paid by some team, an amount around $20 million, which would offset his $35 million lost potential income. 2) Florida does not have income tax, which would save LeBron close to $7 million over the course of the deal. (I'm not counting income tax over the course of future contracts because (a) he may leave Florida after the contract expires and (b) because there is a great chance if he decided to stay in Cleveland, he would leave Cleveland after the 6 year-contract was up, particularly because he might be hungry for titles.) 3) A new collective bargaining agreement will be harsher on players, including lower increases in the maximum salary he could earn as well as a lower salary cap, making it harder for him to earn money in the future. So, that sixth year and beyond, he will likely earn less money over the course of future contracts. 4) That 6th year will be the base amount for his next contract, which will be over $2 million lower than he could have had if he resigned with Cleveland. That means every year of his future contracts, his salary can only increase by a fixed percentage from one year to the next, and he's losing out on more than $2 million per year. So, after this contract, if he signs for 5 more years, he probably loses another $10-12 million on his next contract alone because of signing with the Heat now. (i.e. if the maximum he could get paid on a year by year basis increases something like Yr. 1: $17M- Yr. 2: $18M- Yr. 3: $19M- Yr. 4: $20M- Yr. 5: $21- Yr. 6: $22M in Cleveland vs. Yr. 1: $15M- Yr. 2: $16M- Yr. 3: $17M- Yr. 4: $18M- Yr. 5: $19M in Miami. Then if he signs with Miami, his next contract will start at $20M in his 6th year and proceed $2M lower each year from then on. Additionally, because these numbers operate on percentage growth not $1M per year increases, the amount in prospective losses, increases marginally every year.
So, by my non-scientific estimate, based on the facts and figures and patchwork, if he plays less than 5 years, he lost $28 million in extra salary income. If he plays more than 5 years, he gets paid for that 6th year now, so that offsets most of his losses. But after that 6th year, the longer his career, the more he lost/loses in prospective income (just by signing this current lesser deal with the Heat.) Hence, assuming he plays for 10 years, which is fairly conservative, then my guess is he loses about $15 million. You may be saying, that's nothing, but tens of millions of dollars is not nothing. $10 million could buy him or his family something important to them or it could go to charity or it could be used to hire more people to assist him and give people jobs OR as savvy business people know, every dollar is a potential investment into something much more lucrative.
[Update: New reports indicate that both Cleveland and Toronto made the smart business decision and agreed to sign and trade deals to get trade exceptions for themselves, but also permitted LeBron, Bosh (and Wade) more money under the Collective Bargaining Agreement Rules. They are accepting a 6-year $110 million dollar salary. This means that the 6th year issue is no longer in play. So, LeBron is turning down $15 million in guaranteed money, though $7 million would be paid for Ohio State taxes, for a total net loss of $8 million guaranteed money. The calculation of losses from future contracts continues to be a loss of over $2 million per year for the reasons stated above. Thus, if he is still playing at a very high level at age 31 and signs one single 5 year contract. (Again taxes on that contract do not come into play because we do not know where he will sign or where he would have signed had he been playing for Cleveland.) The signing of this contract would lose him over $10 million off the maximum salary he could earn in that next future contract. So, other than his loss of guaranteed money, the rest of the calculations of his losses remain the same; over the course of his career, he is likely to lose over $15 million by signing this contract with the Heat.]
Some of you are saying, he can make this up in endorsements by going to Miami. Maybe... if he had gone to New York, the biggest market or if he had gone to New Jersey in the presence of an international billionaire and rap mogul who could advertise the heck out of him with unlimited resources... maybe if he had gone to Chicago, he could have won a few championships on a good team and marketed himself as the leader of a championship team. He would bring Jordanesque excitement to a major market (Jordan's market, which made Jordan the most financially successful player ever) and earn more than in Cleveland because the team, unlike Cleveland, was good and could brand him as a champion.
What about Miami? Presumably, he has an even better chance to win in Miami than Chicago, but as Russian billionaire Nets owner pointed out in his notes, playing alongside a superstar of Wade's caliber would tarnish LeBron's brand. I agree with Prokhorov, but I'll start with my limited counter-argument. My favorite economic theory is the principle of minimum differentiation. It's the reason Starbucks always puts a Starbucks right next to another Starbucks. Dunkin Donuts does the same thing. McDonald's and Burger King are often located very near each other. Why? Because when these similar brands and companies are located near each other, that spot becomes the place to go for McDonald's. You want Chinese food? Go to Chinatown. You put similar powerful brands next to each other and that becomes the place to go for that specific commodity. Hence, Miami will be that for basketball, along with L.A. and a few other places. The idea is that if you put a really good player like Gasol next to a great player like Kobe, both players get more out of it. And think of jersey sales. Similarly, consumers buy the jerseys of winners in part because the NBA markets them more. Imagine how much the basketball world will revolve around Miami if these entertaining players win championships together.
Despite my disfigured version of my favorite economic theory, I still think Prokhorov is right. If they don't win titles, they don't market LeBron alone. And more likely, when they do win championships, THEY DON'T MARKET LEBRON ALONE. So, if Chicago won the title with LeBron on the team, they market LeBron's shoes and his gatorade and his sandwiches. If Miami wins, the message is diluted, buy LeBron's shoes and Wade's gatorade and Bosh's sandwiches.
But, my point here is... LeBron knowingly "sacrificed" money in favor of an increased likelihood of winning championships, definitely from salary and almost definitely from endorsements.
But, that's not the only thing he gave up. In order to play with Dwayne Wade, he had to give up part of his ego. Sure, he made a spectacle of himself the last few days and distinguished himself from Wade and Bosh by placing himself in the spotlight over the two of them, but that's the last time he's going to be doing that for awhile. His Decision, like his play on the court, was unselfish.
1) Wade is a Miami hero, who brought the team a title already. 2) He was a Finals MVP. 3) Then Wade decided to return out of a sense of loyalty. 3) He also demonstrated his leadership by bringing LeBron with him. 4) It's very likely Wade will be the leading scorer on the team, as a former scoring champion and factoring LeBron's somewhat superior skills as a passer. 5) As a person with championship experience (and who is slightly older,) Wade will likely by the team leader in the huddles because he has successfully acted in that role before. 6) Wade will very likely get more of the clutch shots because while LeBron is good at those shots, Wade is better. 7) And this is all assuming no one gets injured or perhaps almost as bad, that no one gets jealous.
LeBron is not a fool, despite your current opinion of him. He recognizes at least most of these things above and he's doing the best to spin it in a way that makes it sound humbling without harming his brand as a powerful individual force. But, he must know that some people perceive that he has accepted the role of Scottie Pippen in this scenario. So, however formidable his ego may be, as evidenced by The Decision, he is foregoing some of that ego for championships.
Maybe most importantly though, LeBron likes to play basketball, as evidenced by his exuberance, his powder throwing and his dancing on the court. Moreover, he loves to play basketball alongside great players. It must feel like something special for a great player to play with another great player. In the recent Magic Johnson-Larry Bird HBO documentary, the two of them discussed how in their youth, they played together one time and they remembered that game until today. The two of them barely talked, but watching the two or three clips of them on the court together exchanging incredible passes, probably made basketball seem, not like a job, but like a fun game. The bottom line is, LeBron loves playing with these guys and he likes these guys personally. (I always thought he was closer to Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony, but he made a decision to play ball with these friends.) LeBron did not owe his career to Cleveland and leaving Cleveland was a smart basketball move. He is also going to a party town with nice weather to play basketball with his close friends and probably win many championships. How do you fault someone for that?
As for non-LeBron matters... this is a basketball experiment as well as a phenomenon. The two best basketball players on the same team (Wade may well be third best, but the point is just about the same.) How good can they be? You can make a case that the two best basketball players were on the Celtics or Lakers in the 50's or 60's, but I'd argue against it, without knowing enough about it. You could argue for Kareem and Magic, but by the time Magic was the best player, Kareem was past his prime and just a very good to great player. You could argue Shaq-Kobe, but that would be foolhardy because you would be forgetting how great Duncan was (and a handful of other people) before Kobe became a top 5 level player. They also have Bosh who is a top 10 player and it seems like they will soon have Mike Miller a very good player (excellent shooter.) So, it's not exactly crap around these two. But, it's built like Jordan-Pippen... with Wade not as good as Jordan and LeBron better than Pippen. Either of them could play point-guard, and either of them can guard a couple of different positions. So, they are very flexible as well as being great talents. They both claim to value team efforts and demonstrate it by averaging a large number of assists for non-point guards. So, the predictions for a team like this will vary from winning 5 straight championships to winning 0 championships because there will be so much junk around them and/or there is only one ball etc. (My guess is 3 championships over the 5 year contract.)
They have created a mega-team where there was not one before. People loved the 80's Celtics or Lakers. People loved or hated the 90's Bulls or the Shaq Lakers. It garners interest in the NBA. The fact that LeBron left the Cavs further helps the business everywhere but Cleveland (though it's devastating in Cleveland.) Maybe the Lakers-Heat will be a rivalry or Orlando-Heat will be a rivalry or... well you get the picture. The Decision created a lot of grudges, but also brought a lot of attention. People that don't care about basketball were riveted by this decision, for no discernible reason other than this was good television. The fact that it seemed like such a big deal made it a very big deal. That's art for you.
The MVP vote is up for grabs. LeBron and Wade will probably cancel each other out in the voting. Front-runners include Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony. If LeBron stayed in Cleveland, kept winning 60+ games without any other stars on his team, it would be utterly unfair to hand the trophy to anyone else. Now, it's a game again.
The experience has demonstrated Wade's awesome leadership skills. He had already won a championship with Shaq past his prime, the relics of Gary Payton and Antoine Walker and several role players, but now he pulled some major voodoo to lead the best player in the world to his team and accept Wade's dominion. People may credit Riley, but really Wade made this seem like a fun idea for LeBron.
To conclude this argument in defense of LeBron, I'd like to compare LeBron to the elder statesmen to whom he is often compared, Kobe Bryant. The following are not knocks on Kobe, but correcting the record, which has been unfairly stacked against LeBron. Dan Gilbert's insane tirade said that LeBron quit on his team against the Celtics. Kobe, the ultimate competitor would NEVER quit on his team. Wrong. Kobe quit on his team in an elimination game against the Suns only a few years ago because he was tired of criticisms that he was shooting too much. He decided to show his critics and his teammates just how valuable he was on offense by not participating AT ALL on offense. They lost a winnable series.
Kobe stuck out through some hard times and was rewarded for his faith in the team-owners and teammates and remained loyal to the Lakers. Wrong. In June 2007, Kobe demanded a trade and suggested a burgeoning Bulls team as the primary location for the trade. He reiterated the trade demand and met with Jerry Buss to facilitate the trade. Kobe bad-mouthed his teammates behind their backs, which further threatened his relationship with the Lakers. Buss knew he would not get value, so Kobe had to wait until his contract expired before he would leave. By that time, the Lakers were better because of LA's resources (including weather and glamor that Cleveland lacks) and front-office competence (that Cleveland lacks) and Kobe decided to stay. By the way, 2007 was about 3 years after Kobe's ego (as well as Shaq's ego) was the reason they were not competing for a title in 2007 because Kobe did not want Shaq on the team (and vice versa.)
Kobe, a staunch personality, would not accept being second fiddle to anyone. Sure, that's true now and for the last 8 years... but Kobe happily accepted the three titles he won as second fiddle to the best player on the planet at that time. Now, he tries not to make a big deal about it other than saying, he has 5 rings, he never includes a caveat that he was the second best player on the first three titles. Almost half the commentators in the world, mostly ignorant commentators, compare Kobe's career favorably to Shaq's career because he has 1 more ring than Shaq. So, by that same logic, if LeBron won 6 rings as a superstar on Wade's team, wouldn't that put him above Kobe? For those morons, it would. More sensible people would consider titles as a factor, but also consider a person's career as a whole to determine a player's historical legacy.
I'm barely going to mention any of the other extra-curricular activities that have garnered Kobe negative attention over the years. The allegations of rape, the admission of infidelity, telling police about Shaq's sexual predilections to get out of jail, publicly deriding his teammates, etc. Nothing suggests that LeBron has gotten involved in any of that, and hopefully has and will continue to steer clear.
(I am not sure why people forget allegations so serious, particularly as quickly as they have with Ben Roethlisburger. Just because it cannot be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, does not mean he did not commit the atrocious act. Roethlisburger's allegations seems even worse because it came with a limited admission that he needs to be more careful about his partying. This is no admission of guilt, but it certainly leaves me suspicious of what he considers partying... (e.g. the attempted rape scene by a football player early in The Last Boyscout. Is that what he meant? That's downright evil.) I'm not saying he did it because I have no idea, but the Kobe allegation led to fan torment for years, while Roethlisburger's main problem right now is proving to his teammates he's committed to football and avoiding riding a motorcycle. The reason it lasted so long against Kobe may be because of race, but- isn't the appropriate response... that the derision should last longer against Roethlisburger and not shorter against Kobe?
But the point is, as a person, as a teammate, and by any other measure, LeBron compares favorably to Kobe, especially when Kobe was at this stage in his career (except for the 3 championships he had, and which LeBron is working on.) LeBron did not owe Cleveland a basketball life sentence. He played 7 magnificent transcendent years there, where he dazzled with individual entertainment feats and by carrying an otherwise unworthy team to the brink of a championship year after year. Instead of being thankful for those years and hopeful that LeBron returns 5 years from now, a few championships richer with championship mettle to take his home town team to the top, they react with fury. They burn his jersey in effigy and the owner, for whom LeBron has earned a great deal of money, lambastes LeBron in crayon to the Cavs audience like a petulant child. If I were LeBron, I would not return. If I were a free agent, I would not want to go to a place where I'm not likely to win championships and when I leave, I am likely to be unappreciated and scorned.
I'm not saying Cleveland did not have a right to be angry. It's a free country and you don't need my permission. Moreover, Cleveland has valid reasons to be upset, but... Cleveland lost the moral high ground and if it's between Cleveland and LeBron, I am on Team LeBron-because if I were LeBron, I would not want to play in a place that hated me so willingly. But, I'm a part of the rest of the country, that believes that even though LeBron is setting a great example by sharing the spotlight and the money, blah blah blah, ultimately, he was wrong.
In Attack of LeBron James:
Let's start with the Cavs organization. He may have had problems with them from Dan Gilbert to Mike Brown to the players, but he played for them for several years and he owed it to them to call them in advance and tell them as soon as he knew he was not returning. Over the course of LeBron's reign, the Cavs tried. In various misguided efforts, they brought "help" for LeBron and tried in bumbling fashion, over and over again, to improve the team. It's not like he owed it to them legally or contractually. He owed it to them as a matter of common courtesy and as a mutually beneficial business-partner for several years. He should have called them up and told them, 'Sorry fellas, you guys are great, but I'm not coming back.'
Second, the Cavs fans. The same thing applies. Even though, he is from Ohio, he did not owe Cleveland his career. He brought a minor business boom to the town for a few years and that boom leaves with him. People will lose jobs, businesses will fold, but it's not his fault... and this would happen whenever he left, whether it was now, 6 years from now or when he retired. LeBron, native son or not, is under no obligation at all to maintain these businesses. He has also done a lot for these communities in the forms of charitable works, contributions and garnering attention, but... despite all that, he could have given them a heads up. If he wanted to continue with the Decision debacle, he should have issued a press-release in advance, so that the Cavs fans could have heard something addressed directly to them. Something like... "While I love the city and the people of Cleveland, my future lies elsewhere. I have not determined where yet, but I had to make the extremely tough decision about whether or not to leave my home, my family's home and my town before I could decide where I will go. Cleveland is great and I hope to someday return, but I feel the urge to win and I don't think I can accomplish that here now. Hopefully, for all our sakes, I can come back here in a few years, with a few championships and a lot more experience and then bring some titles home." Something like that... and I was just spit-balling. The fans would have been pissed about him leaving and they still would have been upset about the attention he was getting for The Decision, but at least, they would not be forced to watch the show and/or could have watched it out of curiosity rather than a remote hope to be quashed.
I do not think LeBron wronged anyone else. He made promises to nobody and nobody made a more attractive offer to him than Miami. So, nobody else should be "angry" at him. But two other things were rather irksome... the overblown spectacle he made of himself with the Decision and the disappointing lack of confidence he had in his own basketball ability.
The spectacle was ludicrous. Why didn't he just have a press conference? Why didn't he release a statement? Why didn't he put it on his new twitter account like the admirable Kevin Durant, who spent the day cheering on Oklahoma City's rookies in a summer league game? He did not have to do any of those things, but this was staged like a bad reality show and it was frustrating. The whole hour was dedicated as a LeBron-love-fest hosted by slobbering ESPN... his immense talents, the great reasons why he would go to Miami, etc. Sports journalism is a joke, but I guess in comparison with political journalism, it's right on par.
I don't blame him for the nicknames of King James or the Chosen One; those monikers were created by others and he uses them for fun as well as marketing. But, he said he was going to South Beach, not to Miami. He's going to the Heat to party and he's promoting the party and self-promoting himself at the party. Before this debacle, his popularity was very high throughout the country and the Decision increased attention to his brand, but to do that, he made himself detested in Cleveland... and he appeared like the prototypical basketball egoist.
But, he's not exactly an egoist, because if he was, he would believe in his ability to lead a team to a championship. Maybe he knew he couldn't win in Cleveland, which I believe, but he could have built a team around himself in New York or New Jersey. He could have walked in and lead a team to a championship in Chicago. But in Miami, he admitted defeat. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. That's what he did.
People will say Magic played with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and no one thought less of him. But, Magic was drafted by the Lakers. He did not choose the Lakers because Abdul Jabbar was there. At the later stages of their careers, it's common for players to sacrifice egos like Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to go to Paul Pierce's team as they are more desperate to win a championship. But, to do that at the age of 25, when the expectations from that 25 year old are legendary amounts to a practical admission that he cannot live up to expectations. He's admitting defeat, admitting failure without having reached his peak yet. Again, I only partially believe this defeat theory because I also believe as I mentioned above, that he enjoys playing with his friends, but I still partially believe his admission of defeat.
(Barkley came out with a statement saying that if he was 25, he would want to be "the guy." Barkley is a terrible example for LeBron because we know what happened with Barkley. He was "the guy" and he lost... over and over again. He got to the finals once, and he lost. LeBron matched that by age 22. Now, LeBron wants to win. Later in his career, Barkley tried pairing with a team that had just won two championships, Olajuwon's Rockets (with Drexler who was on the second championship...) but he failed. That tells us, that if your top priority is not winning championships until you are older, then you may, and are actually likely to, fail. I don't entirely disagree with Barkley's point, but Barkley's career is the counter-example.)
It's admirable that LeBron wants to win above all else, but he's going with the easy way out. He doesn't want to try to beat the best, he wants to join the best. Maybe, they can get more superstars. Maybe the whole team can be an all-star team. Is it exciting? Is it competitive? Does it allow each of them to shine? I don't know, but I would have preferred some awesome duo rivalries: Kobe-Gasol, Wade-Bosh, LeBron-Amar'e, Durant- Westbrook?, Melo-? Howard-? Chris Paul-? DeRon Williams-? etc... Very exciting match-ups, but now, most of these teams must scramble to compete.
The Dream Team:
The Dream Team changed basketball. Watching so many great players playing beautifully, increased the attention of the NBA around the world. Basketball throughout the world improved. We see that at international competitions, we see that with an increased international presence in the NBA and we see that with continued interest (merchandising) around the world. We've known all this for many years. People talk about how Magic-Bird saved the NBA and Michael Jordan with his individual style (skill) and marketing changed the NBA. Well, they were all on one team. And they changed basketball in more than one way.
The Dream Team did something else. It started a precedent that great players join future "Dream Teams." These often great players play together, train together and become friends. Magic and Bird were fierce rivals until the Dream Team. LeBron and Wade became much better players after watching Kobe's intensity during the practices and games. But, more importantly, it's probably so fun playing with great players who are exactly where they are supposed to be... or who are good enough to cover for minor mistakes. Playing with people who are that good makes basketball easy and fun. How do you go from playing on Team USA to playing on a bad Cleveland team or a bad Toronto team? Why would you want to? So, you bring your friends from the Dream Team, play with the best driver in Wade, a top-notch post presence in Bosh and a top shooter in Mike Miller. You played with all of these guys on Team USA, you trust them and you like them.
Good for Basketball, Bad for LeBron:
All in all, these super teams are good for basketball. As I keep mentioning, these mega-teams garner massive amounts of attention beyond casual basketball fans. Some will tune in to appreciate the greatness of the two best players in basketball who are as unselfish as they are athletic, while others will tune in to root against this practically unfair pairing. Moreover, other teams will have to find ways to respond by creating their own interesting mega-teams.
As for LeBron, people often have short memories about these types of debacles. Cleveland will probably stay angry at him forever. Even though feelings will linger, as long as he changes the subject of the discussion, everyone else will forgive (and probably forget) the massive spectacle he made of himself. How do you change the subject? Win championships. It works for just about everyone. Some people will hate him for a long time, but championships are forgiving. Basically, if LeBron does not want to be hated, he has just about no room for failure. It's a tough situation to be in, but he placed himself in that situation.
Am I going to be rooting for Miami? Probably not. Am I going to be rooting for LeBron? Probably not anymore. But, am I going to be fascinated? Most definitely.
Hope you are too,
ME
I am surprised by LeBron's choice to go to Miami. I previously explained my take on his different options. After hearing his Decision, even after ESPN's warning, my first thought was how horrible this ordeal was for the city of Cleveland. My next thought was that LeBron was foregoing a potential legacy as a top 5 player of all time in exchange to play a super-charged Scottie Pippen to Dwayne Wade's lesser Michael Jordan. I went through the stages of grieving even though nobody died, nobody was gone forever and heck, I'm not even a Cavs fan. I can only imagine what Cleveland was going through. The only thing I lost was-some degree of respect for a young man I greatly appreciated. But now, with some time to process most of my feelings on the matter, I sought an outlet to relay some of my racing thoughts.
In Defense of LeBron James:
Let's start with the fact that LeBron raised millions of dollars for charity. Sure, he created a spectacle that was the height of hubris, but he channeled that spectacle for a good cause. Let's not forget this act of charity, even in the darkest corners of our minds.
Further, despite the fury directed towards LeBron, he committed no crime. He was accused of committing no crime. Nothing he did was against the law, nor was it against some societal norm. There was no accusation that he cheated on his wife like many other athletes have, even if Cleveland fans feel cheated. He violated no contract; his contract expired and he decided to take a different job. Gosh-darned it, he didn't even lie about any of it. At no point did he make any commitment to his fans that he would play the rest of his career in Cleveland. At most, he said he would like to or love to finish his career in Cleveland, but he always qualified those statements with his primary goal of winning championships... but we'll get to that soon enough.
He forfeited money to play in Miami. A rough estimate is that LeBron could have made a salary of $125 million to sign with Cleveland than any other team. To sign anywhere else, the maximum salary he could make is $30 million less (with one less year.) That's $30 million in guaranteed money. By playing in Miami, alongside Wade and Bosh, he has to take even more of a pay cut, at least another $5 million off the amount they could pay him... $35 million less guaranteed salary than he could make in Cleveland. As I mentioned in my previous post, there are caveats to these salary estimates.
1) LeBron will likely play more than 5 years at a very high level and thus that 6th (extra) year he will likely be paid by some team, an amount around $20 million, which would offset his $35 million lost potential income. 2) Florida does not have income tax, which would save LeBron close to $7 million over the course of the deal. (I'm not counting income tax over the course of future contracts because (a) he may leave Florida after the contract expires and (b) because there is a great chance if he decided to stay in Cleveland, he would leave Cleveland after the 6 year-contract was up, particularly because he might be hungry for titles.) 3) A new collective bargaining agreement will be harsher on players, including lower increases in the maximum salary he could earn as well as a lower salary cap, making it harder for him to earn money in the future. So, that sixth year and beyond, he will likely earn less money over the course of future contracts. 4) That 6th year will be the base amount for his next contract, which will be over $2 million lower than he could have had if he resigned with Cleveland. That means every year of his future contracts, his salary can only increase by a fixed percentage from one year to the next, and he's losing out on more than $2 million per year. So, after this contract, if he signs for 5 more years, he probably loses another $10-12 million on his next contract alone because of signing with the Heat now. (i.e. if the maximum he could get paid on a year by year basis increases something like Yr. 1: $17M- Yr. 2: $18M- Yr. 3: $19M- Yr. 4: $20M- Yr. 5: $21- Yr. 6: $22M in Cleveland vs. Yr. 1: $15M- Yr. 2: $16M- Yr. 3: $17M- Yr. 4: $18M- Yr. 5: $19M in Miami. Then if he signs with Miami, his next contract will start at $20M in his 6th year and proceed $2M lower each year from then on. Additionally, because these numbers operate on percentage growth not $1M per year increases, the amount in prospective losses, increases marginally every year.
So, by my non-scientific estimate, based on the facts and figures and patchwork, if he plays less than 5 years, he lost $28 million in extra salary income. If he plays more than 5 years, he gets paid for that 6th year now, so that offsets most of his losses. But after that 6th year, the longer his career, the more he lost/loses in prospective income (just by signing this current lesser deal with the Heat.) Hence, assuming he plays for 10 years, which is fairly conservative, then my guess is he loses about $15 million. You may be saying, that's nothing, but tens of millions of dollars is not nothing. $10 million could buy him or his family something important to them or it could go to charity or it could be used to hire more people to assist him and give people jobs OR as savvy business people know, every dollar is a potential investment into something much more lucrative.
[Update: New reports indicate that both Cleveland and Toronto made the smart business decision and agreed to sign and trade deals to get trade exceptions for themselves, but also permitted LeBron, Bosh (and Wade) more money under the Collective Bargaining Agreement Rules. They are accepting a 6-year $110 million dollar salary. This means that the 6th year issue is no longer in play. So, LeBron is turning down $15 million in guaranteed money, though $7 million would be paid for Ohio State taxes, for a total net loss of $8 million guaranteed money. The calculation of losses from future contracts continues to be a loss of over $2 million per year for the reasons stated above. Thus, if he is still playing at a very high level at age 31 and signs one single 5 year contract. (Again taxes on that contract do not come into play because we do not know where he will sign or where he would have signed had he been playing for Cleveland.) The signing of this contract would lose him over $10 million off the maximum salary he could earn in that next future contract. So, other than his loss of guaranteed money, the rest of the calculations of his losses remain the same; over the course of his career, he is likely to lose over $15 million by signing this contract with the Heat.]
Some of you are saying, he can make this up in endorsements by going to Miami. Maybe... if he had gone to New York, the biggest market or if he had gone to New Jersey in the presence of an international billionaire and rap mogul who could advertise the heck out of him with unlimited resources... maybe if he had gone to Chicago, he could have won a few championships on a good team and marketed himself as the leader of a championship team. He would bring Jordanesque excitement to a major market (Jordan's market, which made Jordan the most financially successful player ever) and earn more than in Cleveland because the team, unlike Cleveland, was good and could brand him as a champion.
What about Miami? Presumably, he has an even better chance to win in Miami than Chicago, but as Russian billionaire Nets owner pointed out in his notes, playing alongside a superstar of Wade's caliber would tarnish LeBron's brand. I agree with Prokhorov, but I'll start with my limited counter-argument. My favorite economic theory is the principle of minimum differentiation. It's the reason Starbucks always puts a Starbucks right next to another Starbucks. Dunkin Donuts does the same thing. McDonald's and Burger King are often located very near each other. Why? Because when these similar brands and companies are located near each other, that spot becomes the place to go for McDonald's. You want Chinese food? Go to Chinatown. You put similar powerful brands next to each other and that becomes the place to go for that specific commodity. Hence, Miami will be that for basketball, along with L.A. and a few other places. The idea is that if you put a really good player like Gasol next to a great player like Kobe, both players get more out of it. And think of jersey sales. Similarly, consumers buy the jerseys of winners in part because the NBA markets them more. Imagine how much the basketball world will revolve around Miami if these entertaining players win championships together.
Despite my disfigured version of my favorite economic theory, I still think Prokhorov is right. If they don't win titles, they don't market LeBron alone. And more likely, when they do win championships, THEY DON'T MARKET LEBRON ALONE. So, if Chicago won the title with LeBron on the team, they market LeBron's shoes and his gatorade and his sandwiches. If Miami wins, the message is diluted, buy LeBron's shoes and Wade's gatorade and Bosh's sandwiches.
But, my point here is... LeBron knowingly "sacrificed" money in favor of an increased likelihood of winning championships, definitely from salary and almost definitely from endorsements.
But, that's not the only thing he gave up. In order to play with Dwayne Wade, he had to give up part of his ego. Sure, he made a spectacle of himself the last few days and distinguished himself from Wade and Bosh by placing himself in the spotlight over the two of them, but that's the last time he's going to be doing that for awhile. His Decision, like his play on the court, was unselfish.
1) Wade is a Miami hero, who brought the team a title already. 2) He was a Finals MVP. 3) Then Wade decided to return out of a sense of loyalty. 3) He also demonstrated his leadership by bringing LeBron with him. 4) It's very likely Wade will be the leading scorer on the team, as a former scoring champion and factoring LeBron's somewhat superior skills as a passer. 5) As a person with championship experience (and who is slightly older,) Wade will likely by the team leader in the huddles because he has successfully acted in that role before. 6) Wade will very likely get more of the clutch shots because while LeBron is good at those shots, Wade is better. 7) And this is all assuming no one gets injured or perhaps almost as bad, that no one gets jealous.
LeBron is not a fool, despite your current opinion of him. He recognizes at least most of these things above and he's doing the best to spin it in a way that makes it sound humbling without harming his brand as a powerful individual force. But, he must know that some people perceive that he has accepted the role of Scottie Pippen in this scenario. So, however formidable his ego may be, as evidenced by The Decision, he is foregoing some of that ego for championships.
Maybe most importantly though, LeBron likes to play basketball, as evidenced by his exuberance, his powder throwing and his dancing on the court. Moreover, he loves to play basketball alongside great players. It must feel like something special for a great player to play with another great player. In the recent Magic Johnson-Larry Bird HBO documentary, the two of them discussed how in their youth, they played together one time and they remembered that game until today. The two of them barely talked, but watching the two or three clips of them on the court together exchanging incredible passes, probably made basketball seem, not like a job, but like a fun game. The bottom line is, LeBron loves playing with these guys and he likes these guys personally. (I always thought he was closer to Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony, but he made a decision to play ball with these friends.) LeBron did not owe his career to Cleveland and leaving Cleveland was a smart basketball move. He is also going to a party town with nice weather to play basketball with his close friends and probably win many championships. How do you fault someone for that?
As for non-LeBron matters... this is a basketball experiment as well as a phenomenon. The two best basketball players on the same team (Wade may well be third best, but the point is just about the same.) How good can they be? You can make a case that the two best basketball players were on the Celtics or Lakers in the 50's or 60's, but I'd argue against it, without knowing enough about it. You could argue for Kareem and Magic, but by the time Magic was the best player, Kareem was past his prime and just a very good to great player. You could argue Shaq-Kobe, but that would be foolhardy because you would be forgetting how great Duncan was (and a handful of other people) before Kobe became a top 5 level player. They also have Bosh who is a top 10 player and it seems like they will soon have Mike Miller a very good player (excellent shooter.) So, it's not exactly crap around these two. But, it's built like Jordan-Pippen... with Wade not as good as Jordan and LeBron better than Pippen. Either of them could play point-guard, and either of them can guard a couple of different positions. So, they are very flexible as well as being great talents. They both claim to value team efforts and demonstrate it by averaging a large number of assists for non-point guards. So, the predictions for a team like this will vary from winning 5 straight championships to winning 0 championships because there will be so much junk around them and/or there is only one ball etc. (My guess is 3 championships over the 5 year contract.)
They have created a mega-team where there was not one before. People loved the 80's Celtics or Lakers. People loved or hated the 90's Bulls or the Shaq Lakers. It garners interest in the NBA. The fact that LeBron left the Cavs further helps the business everywhere but Cleveland (though it's devastating in Cleveland.) Maybe the Lakers-Heat will be a rivalry or Orlando-Heat will be a rivalry or... well you get the picture. The Decision created a lot of grudges, but also brought a lot of attention. People that don't care about basketball were riveted by this decision, for no discernible reason other than this was good television. The fact that it seemed like such a big deal made it a very big deal. That's art for you.
The MVP vote is up for grabs. LeBron and Wade will probably cancel each other out in the voting. Front-runners include Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony. If LeBron stayed in Cleveland, kept winning 60+ games without any other stars on his team, it would be utterly unfair to hand the trophy to anyone else. Now, it's a game again.
The experience has demonstrated Wade's awesome leadership skills. He had already won a championship with Shaq past his prime, the relics of Gary Payton and Antoine Walker and several role players, but now he pulled some major voodoo to lead the best player in the world to his team and accept Wade's dominion. People may credit Riley, but really Wade made this seem like a fun idea for LeBron.
To conclude this argument in defense of LeBron, I'd like to compare LeBron to the elder statesmen to whom he is often compared, Kobe Bryant. The following are not knocks on Kobe, but correcting the record, which has been unfairly stacked against LeBron. Dan Gilbert's insane tirade said that LeBron quit on his team against the Celtics. Kobe, the ultimate competitor would NEVER quit on his team. Wrong. Kobe quit on his team in an elimination game against the Suns only a few years ago because he was tired of criticisms that he was shooting too much. He decided to show his critics and his teammates just how valuable he was on offense by not participating AT ALL on offense. They lost a winnable series.
Kobe stuck out through some hard times and was rewarded for his faith in the team-owners and teammates and remained loyal to the Lakers. Wrong. In June 2007, Kobe demanded a trade and suggested a burgeoning Bulls team as the primary location for the trade. He reiterated the trade demand and met with Jerry Buss to facilitate the trade. Kobe bad-mouthed his teammates behind their backs, which further threatened his relationship with the Lakers. Buss knew he would not get value, so Kobe had to wait until his contract expired before he would leave. By that time, the Lakers were better because of LA's resources (including weather and glamor that Cleveland lacks) and front-office competence (that Cleveland lacks) and Kobe decided to stay. By the way, 2007 was about 3 years after Kobe's ego (as well as Shaq's ego) was the reason they were not competing for a title in 2007 because Kobe did not want Shaq on the team (and vice versa.)
Kobe, a staunch personality, would not accept being second fiddle to anyone. Sure, that's true now and for the last 8 years... but Kobe happily accepted the three titles he won as second fiddle to the best player on the planet at that time. Now, he tries not to make a big deal about it other than saying, he has 5 rings, he never includes a caveat that he was the second best player on the first three titles. Almost half the commentators in the world, mostly ignorant commentators, compare Kobe's career favorably to Shaq's career because he has 1 more ring than Shaq. So, by that same logic, if LeBron won 6 rings as a superstar on Wade's team, wouldn't that put him above Kobe? For those morons, it would. More sensible people would consider titles as a factor, but also consider a person's career as a whole to determine a player's historical legacy.
I'm barely going to mention any of the other extra-curricular activities that have garnered Kobe negative attention over the years. The allegations of rape, the admission of infidelity, telling police about Shaq's sexual predilections to get out of jail, publicly deriding his teammates, etc. Nothing suggests that LeBron has gotten involved in any of that, and hopefully has and will continue to steer clear.
(I am not sure why people forget allegations so serious, particularly as quickly as they have with Ben Roethlisburger. Just because it cannot be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, does not mean he did not commit the atrocious act. Roethlisburger's allegations seems even worse because it came with a limited admission that he needs to be more careful about his partying. This is no admission of guilt, but it certainly leaves me suspicious of what he considers partying... (e.g. the attempted rape scene by a football player early in The Last Boyscout. Is that what he meant? That's downright evil.) I'm not saying he did it because I have no idea, but the Kobe allegation led to fan torment for years, while Roethlisburger's main problem right now is proving to his teammates he's committed to football and avoiding riding a motorcycle. The reason it lasted so long against Kobe may be because of race, but- isn't the appropriate response... that the derision should last longer against Roethlisburger and not shorter against Kobe?
But the point is, as a person, as a teammate, and by any other measure, LeBron compares favorably to Kobe, especially when Kobe was at this stage in his career (except for the 3 championships he had, and which LeBron is working on.) LeBron did not owe Cleveland a basketball life sentence. He played 7 magnificent transcendent years there, where he dazzled with individual entertainment feats and by carrying an otherwise unworthy team to the brink of a championship year after year. Instead of being thankful for those years and hopeful that LeBron returns 5 years from now, a few championships richer with championship mettle to take his home town team to the top, they react with fury. They burn his jersey in effigy and the owner, for whom LeBron has earned a great deal of money, lambastes LeBron in crayon to the Cavs audience like a petulant child. If I were LeBron, I would not return. If I were a free agent, I would not want to go to a place where I'm not likely to win championships and when I leave, I am likely to be unappreciated and scorned.
I'm not saying Cleveland did not have a right to be angry. It's a free country and you don't need my permission. Moreover, Cleveland has valid reasons to be upset, but... Cleveland lost the moral high ground and if it's between Cleveland and LeBron, I am on Team LeBron-because if I were LeBron, I would not want to play in a place that hated me so willingly. But, I'm a part of the rest of the country, that believes that even though LeBron is setting a great example by sharing the spotlight and the money, blah blah blah, ultimately, he was wrong.
In Attack of LeBron James:
Let's start with the Cavs organization. He may have had problems with them from Dan Gilbert to Mike Brown to the players, but he played for them for several years and he owed it to them to call them in advance and tell them as soon as he knew he was not returning. Over the course of LeBron's reign, the Cavs tried. In various misguided efforts, they brought "help" for LeBron and tried in bumbling fashion, over and over again, to improve the team. It's not like he owed it to them legally or contractually. He owed it to them as a matter of common courtesy and as a mutually beneficial business-partner for several years. He should have called them up and told them, 'Sorry fellas, you guys are great, but I'm not coming back.'
Second, the Cavs fans. The same thing applies. Even though, he is from Ohio, he did not owe Cleveland his career. He brought a minor business boom to the town for a few years and that boom leaves with him. People will lose jobs, businesses will fold, but it's not his fault... and this would happen whenever he left, whether it was now, 6 years from now or when he retired. LeBron, native son or not, is under no obligation at all to maintain these businesses. He has also done a lot for these communities in the forms of charitable works, contributions and garnering attention, but... despite all that, he could have given them a heads up. If he wanted to continue with the Decision debacle, he should have issued a press-release in advance, so that the Cavs fans could have heard something addressed directly to them. Something like... "While I love the city and the people of Cleveland, my future lies elsewhere. I have not determined where yet, but I had to make the extremely tough decision about whether or not to leave my home, my family's home and my town before I could decide where I will go. Cleveland is great and I hope to someday return, but I feel the urge to win and I don't think I can accomplish that here now. Hopefully, for all our sakes, I can come back here in a few years, with a few championships and a lot more experience and then bring some titles home." Something like that... and I was just spit-balling. The fans would have been pissed about him leaving and they still would have been upset about the attention he was getting for The Decision, but at least, they would not be forced to watch the show and/or could have watched it out of curiosity rather than a remote hope to be quashed.
I do not think LeBron wronged anyone else. He made promises to nobody and nobody made a more attractive offer to him than Miami. So, nobody else should be "angry" at him. But two other things were rather irksome... the overblown spectacle he made of himself with the Decision and the disappointing lack of confidence he had in his own basketball ability.
The spectacle was ludicrous. Why didn't he just have a press conference? Why didn't he release a statement? Why didn't he put it on his new twitter account like the admirable Kevin Durant, who spent the day cheering on Oklahoma City's rookies in a summer league game? He did not have to do any of those things, but this was staged like a bad reality show and it was frustrating. The whole hour was dedicated as a LeBron-love-fest hosted by slobbering ESPN... his immense talents, the great reasons why he would go to Miami, etc. Sports journalism is a joke, but I guess in comparison with political journalism, it's right on par.
I don't blame him for the nicknames of King James or the Chosen One; those monikers were created by others and he uses them for fun as well as marketing. But, he said he was going to South Beach, not to Miami. He's going to the Heat to party and he's promoting the party and self-promoting himself at the party. Before this debacle, his popularity was very high throughout the country and the Decision increased attention to his brand, but to do that, he made himself detested in Cleveland... and he appeared like the prototypical basketball egoist.
But, he's not exactly an egoist, because if he was, he would believe in his ability to lead a team to a championship. Maybe he knew he couldn't win in Cleveland, which I believe, but he could have built a team around himself in New York or New Jersey. He could have walked in and lead a team to a championship in Chicago. But in Miami, he admitted defeat. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. That's what he did.
People will say Magic played with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and no one thought less of him. But, Magic was drafted by the Lakers. He did not choose the Lakers because Abdul Jabbar was there. At the later stages of their careers, it's common for players to sacrifice egos like Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to go to Paul Pierce's team as they are more desperate to win a championship. But, to do that at the age of 25, when the expectations from that 25 year old are legendary amounts to a practical admission that he cannot live up to expectations. He's admitting defeat, admitting failure without having reached his peak yet. Again, I only partially believe this defeat theory because I also believe as I mentioned above, that he enjoys playing with his friends, but I still partially believe his admission of defeat.
(Barkley came out with a statement saying that if he was 25, he would want to be "the guy." Barkley is a terrible example for LeBron because we know what happened with Barkley. He was "the guy" and he lost... over and over again. He got to the finals once, and he lost. LeBron matched that by age 22. Now, LeBron wants to win. Later in his career, Barkley tried pairing with a team that had just won two championships, Olajuwon's Rockets (with Drexler who was on the second championship...) but he failed. That tells us, that if your top priority is not winning championships until you are older, then you may, and are actually likely to, fail. I don't entirely disagree with Barkley's point, but Barkley's career is the counter-example.)
It's admirable that LeBron wants to win above all else, but he's going with the easy way out. He doesn't want to try to beat the best, he wants to join the best. Maybe, they can get more superstars. Maybe the whole team can be an all-star team. Is it exciting? Is it competitive? Does it allow each of them to shine? I don't know, but I would have preferred some awesome duo rivalries: Kobe-Gasol, Wade-Bosh, LeBron-Amar'e, Durant- Westbrook?, Melo-? Howard-? Chris Paul-? DeRon Williams-? etc... Very exciting match-ups, but now, most of these teams must scramble to compete.
The Dream Team:
The Dream Team changed basketball. Watching so many great players playing beautifully, increased the attention of the NBA around the world. Basketball throughout the world improved. We see that at international competitions, we see that with an increased international presence in the NBA and we see that with continued interest (merchandising) around the world. We've known all this for many years. People talk about how Magic-Bird saved the NBA and Michael Jordan with his individual style (skill) and marketing changed the NBA. Well, they were all on one team. And they changed basketball in more than one way.
The Dream Team did something else. It started a precedent that great players join future "Dream Teams." These often great players play together, train together and become friends. Magic and Bird were fierce rivals until the Dream Team. LeBron and Wade became much better players after watching Kobe's intensity during the practices and games. But, more importantly, it's probably so fun playing with great players who are exactly where they are supposed to be... or who are good enough to cover for minor mistakes. Playing with people who are that good makes basketball easy and fun. How do you go from playing on Team USA to playing on a bad Cleveland team or a bad Toronto team? Why would you want to? So, you bring your friends from the Dream Team, play with the best driver in Wade, a top-notch post presence in Bosh and a top shooter in Mike Miller. You played with all of these guys on Team USA, you trust them and you like them.
Good for Basketball, Bad for LeBron:
All in all, these super teams are good for basketball. As I keep mentioning, these mega-teams garner massive amounts of attention beyond casual basketball fans. Some will tune in to appreciate the greatness of the two best players in basketball who are as unselfish as they are athletic, while others will tune in to root against this practically unfair pairing. Moreover, other teams will have to find ways to respond by creating their own interesting mega-teams.
As for LeBron, people often have short memories about these types of debacles. Cleveland will probably stay angry at him forever. Even though feelings will linger, as long as he changes the subject of the discussion, everyone else will forgive (and probably forget) the massive spectacle he made of himself. How do you change the subject? Win championships. It works for just about everyone. Some people will hate him for a long time, but championships are forgiving. Basically, if LeBron does not want to be hated, he has just about no room for failure. It's a tough situation to be in, but he placed himself in that situation.
Am I going to be rooting for Miami? Probably not. Am I going to be rooting for LeBron? Probably not anymore. But, am I going to be fascinated? Most definitely.
Hope you are too,
ME
Monday, July 5, 2010
Free Agents
Happy July 4th kids,
I hope you have been enjoying the most entertaining off-season in the history of sports (as far as I can tell) and are thanking two specific players. These two basketball superstars have indicated their willingness to leave their teams. In basketball, more than any other team sport, an individual is able to influence a team's success. Not that one person can win a championship, he can't... but one person makes an enormous impact. Two great players surrounded by several solid players are very capable of winning a championship. Three very good players surrounded by good players can win a championship. There are occasional years when a defense will be totally dominant with a competent offense allowing teams to win (like the Detroit Pistons in 2004, Duncan's 2000 trio, Olajuwon's 1st championship or the Bad Boys 2 championships.) But most of the time, teams have 2-3 great players and complementary players (Malone-Erving, Bird-McHale-Parish, Magic-Abdul Jabbar-Worthy, Jordan-Pippen, Olajuwon-Drexler, Duncan-Robinson, Shaq-Kobe, Wade-Shaq, Pierce-Garnett-Allen, Kobe-Gasol.)
It's clear there is no formula for championships, but it's also clear that having a cast of two to three great players and a solid supporting cast places a team in the best situation to win. So, if I was a general manager, I would move heaven and earth to land LeBron. A few stragglers were so disappointed by LeBron's Game 5 performance against the Celtics where it appeared he was not even trying that they are down on King James... but many great players have games like this. Kobe has had games like this in the past including one where he was tired of being criticized for shooting too much and decided to show his value by not participating in the offense, in an elimination play-off game against Phoenix a few years ago. He's human. So, is LeBron. Thus, moving heaven and earth seems like a small price to pay for such a young talent.
I'd argue that LeBron is the best player in basketball and Wade is the 2nd or third best player in basketball, but for the purposes of my discussion the exact placement is irrelevant as long as everyone is willing to concede that LeBron and Wade are 2 of the 5 best players in basketball. LeBron has 30 teams to choose from, 5 of which are in realistic contention: Cleveland, Chicago, New Jersey, Miami, New York. If all the basketball teams were exactly the same, he would certainly opt to play either in his home state of Ohio or the massive market of New York, but basketball-wise not all things are equal.
I think when a basketball player of LeBron's magnitude is considering a basketball destination, there are 3 primary concerns percolating through his mind. (1) What is best for him and the people he cares about (which is often just the player himself,) but players often consider where they can get the most money, big cities vs. suburbs, comfort level with a location, whether his family is settled, whether he likes or dislikes people in an organization, the weather... etc.? (2) where can he win the most championships, which relates to players, owners and coaching and (3) where can he best serve his legacy, whether he is beloved by his fans or hated by his fans and whether he is appreciated as a leader of a team and perhaps most importantly whether LeBron who has the talent to be regarded as a top 5 player of all time is regarded as such? (For example, if LeBron plays the rest of his career on Cleveland and never gets help and never wins a championship, and would go down in history as the best player to never win a championship and as merely a super-charged Dominique Wilkins. If he wins on a team with Wade and for some reason Wade is considered better historically, which is not likely but plausible, then he would go down as a super-charged Scottie Pippen. Neither of those scenarios would give his legacy the full appreciation of his natural ability, so optimally, he would win championships on a team with one or more other stars, which would make him more like Michael Jordan or Magic Johnson... as Magic played many of his years with Kareem Abdul Jabbar slightly past his dominant prime.)
Okay, let's start with money... because when anyone considers a job offer, that is usually at the top of the wish-list. Because of the collective bargaining agreement between the league owners and the players union, Cleveland can provide him with the highest salary, but not by as much as you think. There is an estimate that LeBron can be paid roughly $30 million more by Cleveland than any other team, but that is not accurate. There are two aspects to Cleveland's advantage (a) Cleveland can pay him a higher year to year percentage increase in salary. Over 5 years, this amounts to roughly $5 million. (b) Cleveland can sign him for an extra year, and if he is earning the maximum increase every year, than that last year would amount to something akin to $25 million.
The caveat to part (b) is that LeBron is young enough that he is likely to continue playing 5 years from now and he is good enough that he is likely to receive the maximum at that time under whatever contract he signs then... so he would be likely earn over $20 million that year anyway. Thus, the only major advantage of the $25 million is that it's guaranteed money, even though he is likely to earn most of that money anyway. The caveats to part (a) are that his salary increases in his next contract will use his current contract as a base and the year-to-year percentage increase will start from there, so if he leaves Cleveland, he will make less money in subsequent contracts. Additionally, the next collective bargaining agreement is likely to be harsher on player's salaries, so every year he has with this contract is a boon as opposed to his next contract. Basically, if he plays less than or equal to 5 years, then by signing with Cleveland he earned an extra $30 million, but if he plays more than 5 years at a high level, it's more likely that by signing with Cleveland now, he earns an extra $10-15 million over the duration of his career because his year-to-year salary increases would be larger if he signs with Cleveland now. I think the strategy of asking the best player in basketball to take less money than the maximum he can be paid shows hubris on the part of the Knicks or any organization that asked this on behalf of LeBron. People do not tend to give up free money. If he is willing to forego some of a max salary, like Tim Duncan did, that's considerate of him, but money is money whether it is his 2nd million or his 391st million. That extra million could go towards a charity of his choosing or a slightly nicer house or among the uber wealthy, each million is capable of earning many more millions. So, LeBron may choose to earn less than the max, but for an organization trying to earn billions of dollars off of him, to attempt to shame him into taking less than the maximum allotted salary is at best hypocritical.
But basketball players make a substantial portion of their income from endorsements, particularly a player as entertaining and charismatic as LeBron. According to Forbes magazine, if he came to New York, he would make a substantial amount more than he would if he went to any other location. However, the highest earning basketball players are the ones that the NBA endorses all year round, are superstars that win championships (and are supremely entertaining.) Michael Jordan was in the 3rd biggest market, but he earned the most money... even more than anyone from New York or Los Angeles because titles (and pizazz) garner attention. Being the superstar on a championship team is more valuable than being a superstar on a flailing failing New York Knicks. The Nets offer a counter-point that playing for a man who has international credentials would earn him more international money has some validity, but championships=international money, so championships come over expected endorsement money.
So, where does LeBron have the best opportunity to win championships? I would guess his best opportunity to win championships would be to play with Wade+Bosh and a collection of veterans and rookies who would want to play for a team with that core. The only recent comparison to a team like that is the Lakers 2000 three-peat. Shaq was the best player in basketball then and one could possibly argue that Kobe was a top 5 player maybe in the last year of that three peat, but their third best player was no where near as good a player as Bosh. Of course, LeBron-Wade-Bosh does not guarantee a championship, especially since the rest of the team would likely be spare parts (unlike those Lakers teams,) but that trio is certainly a championship caliber team. (Bosh could be replaced with Stoudemire with similar affect.)
However, for the sake of argument, let's assume the three of them played together for 10 years and won seven championships together. (1) If it's in Miami, Wade is already the hero that brought them a championship and will be the hero that brought LeBron to Miami. (2) Wade will probably have one extra championship at the end of their respective careers. (3) It is very possible because of LeBron's unselfish play that Wade is the high scorer on the team at least some, if not most, of the 10 year time span, (4) during the end of games, it is very plausible that Wade will be the guy who takes many, if not most, of the last minute clutch shots. (5) Wade is the elder statesman with championship experience, while LeBron would be an added piece to the puzzle. All of these are arguments that would make it possible for Wade supporters, LeBron haters and to a much lesser extent, neutral fans to claim that Wade was the better player on the team and hence, LeBron was a super-charged Scottie Pippen to Wade's Jordan. I probably wouldn't agree with that, but does LeBron want even his best case scenario to be thus marred? If I had LeBron's talent, I wouldn't.
If I were LeBron, I would want to play alongside Carmelo Anthony, or Melo, as he is known because while Wade is better, and even Chris Paul is probably better, Melo complements LeBron's skill set better. Melo is a guy who, like Wade, could relieve some of the pressure off LeBron by driving and creating his own offense. But, he could also hit outside shots, which Wade is not very good at, so they could not leave him alone... which would mean that the floor would be spaced for LeBron's drives (if LeBron and Wade were on the same team, opposing teams should expend most of their energy guarding the basket and leave LeBron and Wade to shoot relatively uncontested outside jump shots.) James, Melo and Bosh might not be as talented as the Wade combo, but it might work better. So, if I were James, I would watch to see if any of the teams traded for Melo.
But, of the current teams as they now stand, Chicago is the best basketball situation, where he has a solid chance to win a championship without being overshadowed by another player. Wade's interest in Chicago has complicated the Chicago situation because Derrick Rose, Wade and LeBron all play the same way and all require the ball to drive. Further, I am not sure LeBron wants Chicago enough to screw over his friend Wade's chance to play near his children. Thus, if I were LeBron, the other situation I would consider (barring trades) is signing in New Jersey, provided they can woo Bosh or Stoudemire as well. Harris drives, Lee is an athletic shooter and Lopez is a center who has solid defense and a strong offense. Those are decent complementary players provided they have LeBron and another star to propel all of them to another level.
If the Knicks sign Stoudemire or Bosh and trade for Melo or Chris Paul, they would enter the conversation as well, but currently the Knicks do not have much to work with, other than Lee who would probably be the subject of a trade if he doesn't leave in free agency and Gallinari, who is very young and may or may not turn out to be a quality player (and also may be the subject of a trade.) As constructed, Cleveland is better than that.
But, legacy is not all about basketball. LeBron has an affinity for Cleveland. They also have been trying (poorly) to give him complementary players, but have been sparing no expense in their misguided efforts. They finally got rid of their limited coach and hired the best coach available who is also the best coach of this group of LeBron-eligible teams (aside from Riley, who is rumored to take over the coaching job in Miami if LeBron comes to town.) Cleveland may hate him if he leaves. He may hate himself if he leaves. He might rather be Dirk Nowitzki, a great player who elevates his team to championship caliber level rather than Pau Gasol, a great player whose legacy is failure on one team followed by success on another. Not to mention, Cleveland could pay more, as discussed above. AND... if he can take Cleveland and turn this bunch of scraps into champions, which is not likely but not impossible, then he would immediately belong among the greats of all time... even if he just won 1 or 2 titles.
So, honestly, if I were LeBron in the current situation, I would stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago. Similarly, Wade is trapped by loyalty to his team and a family situation in Chicago. That sounds like a much tougher situation, even though the pressure on him is not nearly as great (because he is not regarded as a basketball city savior like LeBron AND he already has a championship.) If I were Bosh, I would follow LeBron unless he stays in Cleveland, then I would follow Wade, unless neither is possible, in which case... I guess I would entertain the Houston idea, favored by some analysts, which relies on Yao and Bosh crowding the lane or Bosh to replace Ming's chronic injury issues. Stoudemire is a little more complicated than Bosh because, if I were him, I would follow LeBron or Wade... whoever Bosh does not follow. But, Stoudemire has always craved first billing after spending his entire career overshadowed by Nash. So, Stat apparently wants to sign with the Knicks and then recruit quality teammates in an effort to demonstrate leadership (e.g. Melo and Tony Parker to New York to play alongside him.) But, a guy who plays little defense like Stoudemire is not an ideal candidate for team leadership.
But, back to LeBron... before the end of the season, I thought he would stay with Cleveland. I actually thought if he won a championship, he would have a clear conscience to leave after bringing a long-awaited championship to Cleveland. If he lost in the finals, he would have motivation to stay at least another year or two to accept a conquerable challenge... but the way the Cavs lost made me think he had to leave, for basketball reasons. He had to leave because the other players on the team were bad. Mo Williams did virtually nothing on offense and made Rajon Rondo, a good player, look like a wizard with Mo's donut defense. Jamison, similarly shrunk from the moment and Shaq showed his age. In short, if James wants a title with this team, he would have to do it himself. I was under the naive view that LeBron was so good that he could do it himself, but he can't and it will take me another year to forget that fact again. So, I thought LeBron was out of the Cleve... but now, having seen how torn he is, and the complexities of the Chicago situation, which I would have otherwise considered Plan A, Cleveland does not seem so bad... or more accurately, leaving Cleveland seems kinda wrong.
What about the other guys? Boozer might end up in Miami or on 1 of these LeBron suitors, but he's not that big enough of a difference maker to make a difference. David Lee is in the same boat except he is even worse on defense. Ray Allen, JJ Reddick or some other shooter are powerful additions that could spread the floor for LeBron, Wade or Rose, possibly in a trade for a quality player like Deng.
Now, a few words on the greatest players of all time. The way I have always judged the greatest players of all time, knowing what you know about a player's skill level, effort level, longevity and ability to lead championships, contribute to championships, which player(s) would you choose first. (It's not just championships, as I'd much rather have Nash's career than Kerr's career on my team, but championships factor in because I'd rather have Isaiah Thomas than John Stockton, though not by much.) I think it's foolhardy to choose anyone but Jordan first. Then, there is probably some combination of Magic Johnson, Abdul Jabbar, Bird, Chamberlain and Russell in the next tier of players. Then, there is another tier of players with Olajuwon, Duncan, Robertson, Oneal, West and now Kobe. I have previously argued that Kobe doesn't belong in the same category with Jordan, but if he keeps winning, he may belong in the same category with Magic. He had a good finals series, despite having poor fourth quarters and a sub-par Game 7, but his team picked up the slack and he won his 5th championship and 2nd Finals MVP. But, to his defense, Boston has an excellent defense. If he wins 1 more finals MVPs with another championship or 2, his case against Magic increases, though he wouldn't match him unless his peak extends several years longer and/or he continues winning championships. So, Kobe is about the 10th best player in basketball history... even now, but I don't imagine him jumping much even if he wins another championship because as great as he is, his next championship would only be his 3rd as the best player on his team.
(Let's say Kobe and Shaq retire now with Kobe having an extra championship ring and an equal number of MVP trophies. Trying to take their careers independently, Kobe was a top 5 player for about 8-10 years, probably for about 2 of those years between Duncan and LeBron, he was the best player in basketball. Pair him with a very good cast and he could win you many championships (paired with a not good cast and he could miss the playoffs.) Shaq had 3 years when he was utterly dominant and paired with a good cast, he could win championships. He also had about 7 other years when he was a top 5 player. If I want any championships, I certainly pick Shaq... and if I want multiple championships, I certainly pick Shaq. But, assuming that the life span of my team, the quality of my team will vacillate, if I have a very good team for many of those years, Kobe could be the best player on that team that wins many championships. So, this is where Kobe's potential longevity might give Kobe the edge in the end over Shaq. If he has 2 more years as a top 5 player and than 3-4 more years as a very good player, then I could legitimately see a team building around Kobe's extended greatness over Shaq's fleeting dominance. It would probably take more than 1 additional championship to vault him over Shaq though, in my mind. This is particularly true because of Shaq's dominance in some finals series, while Kobe has yet to demonstrate such dominance. Either way, this championship put Kobe into (or perhaps just below) the top 10 greatest players ever, but 1 more probably won't make a huge dent, though 2 more... just might.)
What of LeBron? If LeBron retires now, he would not have a championship, but he would have been the best player in basketball for 2-3 years now and a great player for 4 other years, so he's already more than a regular hall of famer. Many more years of this without a championship and he keeps jumping to the top of the heap... but, all of the top 10 players I mentioned won at least one championship. Similarly, if LeBron won a single championship, particularly with a sub-par team, I think he jumps onto or adds to that list of top 10 players. The problem is that a player of LeBron's skill-level is not aiming to match the lower end of this list, he should end his career near the top of list. Some have suggested that he plays with Wade for a few years, tries to accumulate championships and then return to Cleveland to try to rebuild. It's not ridiculous, but if he wants to stay in Cleveland, he should do so and if he is concerned about winning, he could find a team with enough parts to win. But at age 25, I am not sure he should enter panic mode and lower his expectations to being Scottie Pippen 2.0 just yet. But, he's a great player and I'm not worried about him wherever he ends up.
On another note, congratulations to all the teams I was rooting for in the World Cup. You all failed me, starting with the United States, then Argentina, Argentina's Messi, Ghana, Brazil, etc... I guess, I'm now rooting for whoever emerges from Uruguay-Holland match, though reluctantly and begrudgingly.
Congratulations to Nadal for getting his 8th Grand Slam title. I have the same qualm with him as I do with Federer, he won his championships in an era of limited competition. The Connors-Borg-McEnroe era leaked into the Becker-Edberg-Lendl era. That was followed by the Sampras-Agassi era, except that Becker, Edberg and Lendl were still around and had to be overcome by their younger counterparts. Then, there were people like Courier who came along and played with dominance for awhile. By the time Federer was winning titles, Sampras was done and Agassi was... done. So, he had to beat lesser competition like Hewitt until Nadal came along. Nadal and Federer are dominant and consistent, but their strongest competition is Andy Roddick, who at best is a... Yevgeny Kafelnikov. Djokovic has not come into his own and may yet become better than a Jim Courier, but as of yet, not so much. Federer reminds me a lot of Lendl, a better version of Lendl, but I still contend that Sampras was better than that. And from what I understand, Nadal is not quite as good as Borg was, but he's young, so we'll see.
We'll see. I guess that's the theme of this blog post. I talk a lot of smack, but in the end, I barely have guesses, let alone predictions. But-I'll guess anyway. My guess: Nadal finishes with 13 grand slam titles to Federer's 17. Holland uses it's semi-home field (I'm not sure if Boers are loved, hated or irrelevant) to win it all over Spain with Germany taking 3rd. LeBron stays in Cleveland. Wade stays in Miami and brings Chris Bosh. Stoudemire goes to New York and gets Parker as a start to a NY team, but ultimately a lame off-season for them. Boozer goes to Chicago and they acquire a shooter as well. New Jersey trades for somebody to stay relevant. But, I have no inside information and a very limited understanding of the wants of these players. So, my thoughts are uneducated guesses merely to record my notions for posterity and to measure my prophetic ability. Thus, spoke Zarathustra.
Hope you enjoyed this nonsense,
ME
I hope you have been enjoying the most entertaining off-season in the history of sports (as far as I can tell) and are thanking two specific players. These two basketball superstars have indicated their willingness to leave their teams. In basketball, more than any other team sport, an individual is able to influence a team's success. Not that one person can win a championship, he can't... but one person makes an enormous impact. Two great players surrounded by several solid players are very capable of winning a championship. Three very good players surrounded by good players can win a championship. There are occasional years when a defense will be totally dominant with a competent offense allowing teams to win (like the Detroit Pistons in 2004, Duncan's 2000 trio, Olajuwon's 1st championship or the Bad Boys 2 championships.) But most of the time, teams have 2-3 great players and complementary players (Malone-Erving, Bird-McHale-Parish, Magic-Abdul Jabbar-Worthy, Jordan-Pippen, Olajuwon-Drexler, Duncan-Robinson, Shaq-Kobe, Wade-Shaq, Pierce-Garnett-Allen, Kobe-Gasol.)
It's clear there is no formula for championships, but it's also clear that having a cast of two to three great players and a solid supporting cast places a team in the best situation to win. So, if I was a general manager, I would move heaven and earth to land LeBron. A few stragglers were so disappointed by LeBron's Game 5 performance against the Celtics where it appeared he was not even trying that they are down on King James... but many great players have games like this. Kobe has had games like this in the past including one where he was tired of being criticized for shooting too much and decided to show his value by not participating in the offense, in an elimination play-off game against Phoenix a few years ago. He's human. So, is LeBron. Thus, moving heaven and earth seems like a small price to pay for such a young talent.
I'd argue that LeBron is the best player in basketball and Wade is the 2nd or third best player in basketball, but for the purposes of my discussion the exact placement is irrelevant as long as everyone is willing to concede that LeBron and Wade are 2 of the 5 best players in basketball. LeBron has 30 teams to choose from, 5 of which are in realistic contention: Cleveland, Chicago, New Jersey, Miami, New York. If all the basketball teams were exactly the same, he would certainly opt to play either in his home state of Ohio or the massive market of New York, but basketball-wise not all things are equal.
I think when a basketball player of LeBron's magnitude is considering a basketball destination, there are 3 primary concerns percolating through his mind. (1) What is best for him and the people he cares about (which is often just the player himself,) but players often consider where they can get the most money, big cities vs. suburbs, comfort level with a location, whether his family is settled, whether he likes or dislikes people in an organization, the weather... etc.? (2) where can he win the most championships, which relates to players, owners and coaching and (3) where can he best serve his legacy, whether he is beloved by his fans or hated by his fans and whether he is appreciated as a leader of a team and perhaps most importantly whether LeBron who has the talent to be regarded as a top 5 player of all time is regarded as such? (For example, if LeBron plays the rest of his career on Cleveland and never gets help and never wins a championship, and would go down in history as the best player to never win a championship and as merely a super-charged Dominique Wilkins. If he wins on a team with Wade and for some reason Wade is considered better historically, which is not likely but plausible, then he would go down as a super-charged Scottie Pippen. Neither of those scenarios would give his legacy the full appreciation of his natural ability, so optimally, he would win championships on a team with one or more other stars, which would make him more like Michael Jordan or Magic Johnson... as Magic played many of his years with Kareem Abdul Jabbar slightly past his dominant prime.)
Okay, let's start with money... because when anyone considers a job offer, that is usually at the top of the wish-list. Because of the collective bargaining agreement between the league owners and the players union, Cleveland can provide him with the highest salary, but not by as much as you think. There is an estimate that LeBron can be paid roughly $30 million more by Cleveland than any other team, but that is not accurate. There are two aspects to Cleveland's advantage (a) Cleveland can pay him a higher year to year percentage increase in salary. Over 5 years, this amounts to roughly $5 million. (b) Cleveland can sign him for an extra year, and if he is earning the maximum increase every year, than that last year would amount to something akin to $25 million.
The caveat to part (b) is that LeBron is young enough that he is likely to continue playing 5 years from now and he is good enough that he is likely to receive the maximum at that time under whatever contract he signs then... so he would be likely earn over $20 million that year anyway. Thus, the only major advantage of the $25 million is that it's guaranteed money, even though he is likely to earn most of that money anyway. The caveats to part (a) are that his salary increases in his next contract will use his current contract as a base and the year-to-year percentage increase will start from there, so if he leaves Cleveland, he will make less money in subsequent contracts. Additionally, the next collective bargaining agreement is likely to be harsher on player's salaries, so every year he has with this contract is a boon as opposed to his next contract. Basically, if he plays less than or equal to 5 years, then by signing with Cleveland he earned an extra $30 million, but if he plays more than 5 years at a high level, it's more likely that by signing with Cleveland now, he earns an extra $10-15 million over the duration of his career because his year-to-year salary increases would be larger if he signs with Cleveland now. I think the strategy of asking the best player in basketball to take less money than the maximum he can be paid shows hubris on the part of the Knicks or any organization that asked this on behalf of LeBron. People do not tend to give up free money. If he is willing to forego some of a max salary, like Tim Duncan did, that's considerate of him, but money is money whether it is his 2nd million or his 391st million. That extra million could go towards a charity of his choosing or a slightly nicer house or among the uber wealthy, each million is capable of earning many more millions. So, LeBron may choose to earn less than the max, but for an organization trying to earn billions of dollars off of him, to attempt to shame him into taking less than the maximum allotted salary is at best hypocritical.
But basketball players make a substantial portion of their income from endorsements, particularly a player as entertaining and charismatic as LeBron. According to Forbes magazine, if he came to New York, he would make a substantial amount more than he would if he went to any other location. However, the highest earning basketball players are the ones that the NBA endorses all year round, are superstars that win championships (and are supremely entertaining.) Michael Jordan was in the 3rd biggest market, but he earned the most money... even more than anyone from New York or Los Angeles because titles (and pizazz) garner attention. Being the superstar on a championship team is more valuable than being a superstar on a flailing failing New York Knicks. The Nets offer a counter-point that playing for a man who has international credentials would earn him more international money has some validity, but championships=international money, so championships come over expected endorsement money.
So, where does LeBron have the best opportunity to win championships? I would guess his best opportunity to win championships would be to play with Wade+Bosh and a collection of veterans and rookies who would want to play for a team with that core. The only recent comparison to a team like that is the Lakers 2000 three-peat. Shaq was the best player in basketball then and one could possibly argue that Kobe was a top 5 player maybe in the last year of that three peat, but their third best player was no where near as good a player as Bosh. Of course, LeBron-Wade-Bosh does not guarantee a championship, especially since the rest of the team would likely be spare parts (unlike those Lakers teams,) but that trio is certainly a championship caliber team. (Bosh could be replaced with Stoudemire with similar affect.)
However, for the sake of argument, let's assume the three of them played together for 10 years and won seven championships together. (1) If it's in Miami, Wade is already the hero that brought them a championship and will be the hero that brought LeBron to Miami. (2) Wade will probably have one extra championship at the end of their respective careers. (3) It is very possible because of LeBron's unselfish play that Wade is the high scorer on the team at least some, if not most, of the 10 year time span, (4) during the end of games, it is very plausible that Wade will be the guy who takes many, if not most, of the last minute clutch shots. (5) Wade is the elder statesman with championship experience, while LeBron would be an added piece to the puzzle. All of these are arguments that would make it possible for Wade supporters, LeBron haters and to a much lesser extent, neutral fans to claim that Wade was the better player on the team and hence, LeBron was a super-charged Scottie Pippen to Wade's Jordan. I probably wouldn't agree with that, but does LeBron want even his best case scenario to be thus marred? If I had LeBron's talent, I wouldn't.
If I were LeBron, I would want to play alongside Carmelo Anthony, or Melo, as he is known because while Wade is better, and even Chris Paul is probably better, Melo complements LeBron's skill set better. Melo is a guy who, like Wade, could relieve some of the pressure off LeBron by driving and creating his own offense. But, he could also hit outside shots, which Wade is not very good at, so they could not leave him alone... which would mean that the floor would be spaced for LeBron's drives (if LeBron and Wade were on the same team, opposing teams should expend most of their energy guarding the basket and leave LeBron and Wade to shoot relatively uncontested outside jump shots.) James, Melo and Bosh might not be as talented as the Wade combo, but it might work better. So, if I were James, I would watch to see if any of the teams traded for Melo.
But, of the current teams as they now stand, Chicago is the best basketball situation, where he has a solid chance to win a championship without being overshadowed by another player. Wade's interest in Chicago has complicated the Chicago situation because Derrick Rose, Wade and LeBron all play the same way and all require the ball to drive. Further, I am not sure LeBron wants Chicago enough to screw over his friend Wade's chance to play near his children. Thus, if I were LeBron, the other situation I would consider (barring trades) is signing in New Jersey, provided they can woo Bosh or Stoudemire as well. Harris drives, Lee is an athletic shooter and Lopez is a center who has solid defense and a strong offense. Those are decent complementary players provided they have LeBron and another star to propel all of them to another level.
If the Knicks sign Stoudemire or Bosh and trade for Melo or Chris Paul, they would enter the conversation as well, but currently the Knicks do not have much to work with, other than Lee who would probably be the subject of a trade if he doesn't leave in free agency and Gallinari, who is very young and may or may not turn out to be a quality player (and also may be the subject of a trade.) As constructed, Cleveland is better than that.
But, legacy is not all about basketball. LeBron has an affinity for Cleveland. They also have been trying (poorly) to give him complementary players, but have been sparing no expense in their misguided efforts. They finally got rid of their limited coach and hired the best coach available who is also the best coach of this group of LeBron-eligible teams (aside from Riley, who is rumored to take over the coaching job in Miami if LeBron comes to town.) Cleveland may hate him if he leaves. He may hate himself if he leaves. He might rather be Dirk Nowitzki, a great player who elevates his team to championship caliber level rather than Pau Gasol, a great player whose legacy is failure on one team followed by success on another. Not to mention, Cleveland could pay more, as discussed above. AND... if he can take Cleveland and turn this bunch of scraps into champions, which is not likely but not impossible, then he would immediately belong among the greats of all time... even if he just won 1 or 2 titles.
So, honestly, if I were LeBron in the current situation, I would stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago. Similarly, Wade is trapped by loyalty to his team and a family situation in Chicago. That sounds like a much tougher situation, even though the pressure on him is not nearly as great (because he is not regarded as a basketball city savior like LeBron AND he already has a championship.) If I were Bosh, I would follow LeBron unless he stays in Cleveland, then I would follow Wade, unless neither is possible, in which case... I guess I would entertain the Houston idea, favored by some analysts, which relies on Yao and Bosh crowding the lane or Bosh to replace Ming's chronic injury issues. Stoudemire is a little more complicated than Bosh because, if I were him, I would follow LeBron or Wade... whoever Bosh does not follow. But, Stoudemire has always craved first billing after spending his entire career overshadowed by Nash. So, Stat apparently wants to sign with the Knicks and then recruit quality teammates in an effort to demonstrate leadership (e.g. Melo and Tony Parker to New York to play alongside him.) But, a guy who plays little defense like Stoudemire is not an ideal candidate for team leadership.
But, back to LeBron... before the end of the season, I thought he would stay with Cleveland. I actually thought if he won a championship, he would have a clear conscience to leave after bringing a long-awaited championship to Cleveland. If he lost in the finals, he would have motivation to stay at least another year or two to accept a conquerable challenge... but the way the Cavs lost made me think he had to leave, for basketball reasons. He had to leave because the other players on the team were bad. Mo Williams did virtually nothing on offense and made Rajon Rondo, a good player, look like a wizard with Mo's donut defense. Jamison, similarly shrunk from the moment and Shaq showed his age. In short, if James wants a title with this team, he would have to do it himself. I was under the naive view that LeBron was so good that he could do it himself, but he can't and it will take me another year to forget that fact again. So, I thought LeBron was out of the Cleve... but now, having seen how torn he is, and the complexities of the Chicago situation, which I would have otherwise considered Plan A, Cleveland does not seem so bad... or more accurately, leaving Cleveland seems kinda wrong.
What about the other guys? Boozer might end up in Miami or on 1 of these LeBron suitors, but he's not that big enough of a difference maker to make a difference. David Lee is in the same boat except he is even worse on defense. Ray Allen, JJ Reddick or some other shooter are powerful additions that could spread the floor for LeBron, Wade or Rose, possibly in a trade for a quality player like Deng.
Now, a few words on the greatest players of all time. The way I have always judged the greatest players of all time, knowing what you know about a player's skill level, effort level, longevity and ability to lead championships, contribute to championships, which player(s) would you choose first. (It's not just championships, as I'd much rather have Nash's career than Kerr's career on my team, but championships factor in because I'd rather have Isaiah Thomas than John Stockton, though not by much.) I think it's foolhardy to choose anyone but Jordan first. Then, there is probably some combination of Magic Johnson, Abdul Jabbar, Bird, Chamberlain and Russell in the next tier of players. Then, there is another tier of players with Olajuwon, Duncan, Robertson, Oneal, West and now Kobe. I have previously argued that Kobe doesn't belong in the same category with Jordan, but if he keeps winning, he may belong in the same category with Magic. He had a good finals series, despite having poor fourth quarters and a sub-par Game 7, but his team picked up the slack and he won his 5th championship and 2nd Finals MVP. But, to his defense, Boston has an excellent defense. If he wins 1 more finals MVPs with another championship or 2, his case against Magic increases, though he wouldn't match him unless his peak extends several years longer and/or he continues winning championships. So, Kobe is about the 10th best player in basketball history... even now, but I don't imagine him jumping much even if he wins another championship because as great as he is, his next championship would only be his 3rd as the best player on his team.
(Let's say Kobe and Shaq retire now with Kobe having an extra championship ring and an equal number of MVP trophies. Trying to take their careers independently, Kobe was a top 5 player for about 8-10 years, probably for about 2 of those years between Duncan and LeBron, he was the best player in basketball. Pair him with a very good cast and he could win you many championships (paired with a not good cast and he could miss the playoffs.) Shaq had 3 years when he was utterly dominant and paired with a good cast, he could win championships. He also had about 7 other years when he was a top 5 player. If I want any championships, I certainly pick Shaq... and if I want multiple championships, I certainly pick Shaq. But, assuming that the life span of my team, the quality of my team will vacillate, if I have a very good team for many of those years, Kobe could be the best player on that team that wins many championships. So, this is where Kobe's potential longevity might give Kobe the edge in the end over Shaq. If he has 2 more years as a top 5 player and than 3-4 more years as a very good player, then I could legitimately see a team building around Kobe's extended greatness over Shaq's fleeting dominance. It would probably take more than 1 additional championship to vault him over Shaq though, in my mind. This is particularly true because of Shaq's dominance in some finals series, while Kobe has yet to demonstrate such dominance. Either way, this championship put Kobe into (or perhaps just below) the top 10 greatest players ever, but 1 more probably won't make a huge dent, though 2 more... just might.)
What of LeBron? If LeBron retires now, he would not have a championship, but he would have been the best player in basketball for 2-3 years now and a great player for 4 other years, so he's already more than a regular hall of famer. Many more years of this without a championship and he keeps jumping to the top of the heap... but, all of the top 10 players I mentioned won at least one championship. Similarly, if LeBron won a single championship, particularly with a sub-par team, I think he jumps onto or adds to that list of top 10 players. The problem is that a player of LeBron's skill-level is not aiming to match the lower end of this list, he should end his career near the top of list. Some have suggested that he plays with Wade for a few years, tries to accumulate championships and then return to Cleveland to try to rebuild. It's not ridiculous, but if he wants to stay in Cleveland, he should do so and if he is concerned about winning, he could find a team with enough parts to win. But at age 25, I am not sure he should enter panic mode and lower his expectations to being Scottie Pippen 2.0 just yet. But, he's a great player and I'm not worried about him wherever he ends up.
On another note, congratulations to all the teams I was rooting for in the World Cup. You all failed me, starting with the United States, then Argentina, Argentina's Messi, Ghana, Brazil, etc... I guess, I'm now rooting for whoever emerges from Uruguay-Holland match, though reluctantly and begrudgingly.
Congratulations to Nadal for getting his 8th Grand Slam title. I have the same qualm with him as I do with Federer, he won his championships in an era of limited competition. The Connors-Borg-McEnroe era leaked into the Becker-Edberg-Lendl era. That was followed by the Sampras-Agassi era, except that Becker, Edberg and Lendl were still around and had to be overcome by their younger counterparts. Then, there were people like Courier who came along and played with dominance for awhile. By the time Federer was winning titles, Sampras was done and Agassi was... done. So, he had to beat lesser competition like Hewitt until Nadal came along. Nadal and Federer are dominant and consistent, but their strongest competition is Andy Roddick, who at best is a... Yevgeny Kafelnikov. Djokovic has not come into his own and may yet become better than a Jim Courier, but as of yet, not so much. Federer reminds me a lot of Lendl, a better version of Lendl, but I still contend that Sampras was better than that. And from what I understand, Nadal is not quite as good as Borg was, but he's young, so we'll see.
We'll see. I guess that's the theme of this blog post. I talk a lot of smack, but in the end, I barely have guesses, let alone predictions. But-I'll guess anyway. My guess: Nadal finishes with 13 grand slam titles to Federer's 17. Holland uses it's semi-home field (I'm not sure if Boers are loved, hated or irrelevant) to win it all over Spain with Germany taking 3rd. LeBron stays in Cleveland. Wade stays in Miami and brings Chris Bosh. Stoudemire goes to New York and gets Parker as a start to a NY team, but ultimately a lame off-season for them. Boozer goes to Chicago and they acquire a shooter as well. New Jersey trades for somebody to stay relevant. But, I have no inside information and a very limited understanding of the wants of these players. So, my thoughts are uneducated guesses merely to record my notions for posterity and to measure my prophetic ability. Thus, spoke Zarathustra.
Hope you enjoyed this nonsense,
ME
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