Politics Lost

Hello again blog aficionados and other people who know how to spell aficionado,

So, in the world of politic, who were the big winners and losers over this past week? Overall, I guess you could say Romney did not have a good week, having lost all of the Southern states and California, the state his presidency dreams hinged upon. So, he dutifully stepped aside. I wonder how much of his personal fortune he spent? If he only had $200 million (I say "only" with tears in my eyes), and he spent $35-50 million on a failed presidential bid, he really cut into his fortune substantially. But, dropping out was a sound decision if he was going to spend that much money and more, followed by a difficult actual presidential race, where he would probably lose to whoever emerged from the Democratic Party. Smart move Mitt. And his amount is much more than Hillary is spending on her (hopefully) failed bid.

So, the remaining Republican candidates are Senator John McCain, who now has a commanding lead and Governor Mike Huckabee, who now has little competition for the social conservatives that hate McCain vote. But, in all likelihood, it is too late for Huckabee to mount a sufficient resistance to the McCain inevitability. The politicos on MSNBC, and CNN seem to think this guy is angling for the vice presidency, (and Mitt is eyeing a future presidential bid,) but there is little evidence to support that Huckabee is running for second. He's clearly running for first, he's just well behind with a race that's almost over. He'll have to dribble around some tight opposition and then throw a homerun pass to score his goal of winning the nomination. Otherwise, McCain is your next Republican candidate for president.

Obama and Hillary are stuck in limbo, and have to continue debating internally about how much to attack the other side and how much to praise the other candidate. Who won Super Tuesday? Both sides claim victory and both sides are right to do so. Obama won slightly more delegates and more states, while Hillary won more votes and larger states. More importantly though, Obama, whose fundraising and poll numbers are rising with added publicity has more time to creep up in the polls, but is it enough time and what happens if this goes to the convention undecided. (Pretty diplomatic of me, right? Stay tuned, I become less diplomatic as I get more tired.)

So, we ask, who is ahead so far? It looks like its pretty close, but counting superdelegates (Democratic bigwigs who get to vote as if they are delegates) Hillary is ahead by a little. I would take that to mean, Hillary is well ahead because in boxing, if the opponent knows the judges (and the judges owe the opponent a favor), you need a knockout to win the fight. While Obama has momentum, if he doesn't meet the number, it becomes increasingly likely that Hillary will emerge as the victor from years of being part of the circle, and being almost on top of the circle. And I bet Hillary could make some very real threats to superdelegates who don't swing her way.
For example, imaginary conversation between Hillary staffer (HS) and superdelegate (SD)...
HS- "If I were you, I wouldn't want to get on Hillary's bad side. She will probably win this election and she has a long memory for things like this. Do you really want to have Hillary on your bad side?"
SD- "But, what if Obama wins?"
HS- "He won't win, we already have the numbers, and even if he by some miracle does win, do you really think the big softie will hold a grudge? He's a big ball of happy goo made entirely of fluff. Hillary is a grudge ball, powered by unbridled fury."

Yep, if I was Obama, I would do whatever I could to get the knockout early. But, the question remains, who does the long Republican layoff help, the Democrats who are continuing to hone their skills and continuing to garner massive amounts of attention or the McCain, who will now be the solitary target of Democratic attacks and who will receive the minimal amount of positive attention as his campaign moves into stealth mode and hibernation to reemerge... more to the right? That would be unusual, but not necessarily impractical. Either way, the layoff question was part of the Rudy strategy, which he used to avoid the scathing attacks and look how well that worked for him. The debate about who the layoff helps may continue, but we may be down to 1 conference finals series.

Speaking of layoffs, how about the Shaq trade that occurred this week. Many people say that Shaq is too old, too hurt, and too fat to make any more impact in the NBA game. I don't think I was one of those people, but you never know. True, Marion is a lot to give up, such a great defender (he can almost even guard a quick point guard or a strong center, but he can definitely guard anyone in between), who makes up for some of Nash's defensive flaws, with incredible athletic skills, as he was the one who most frequently ran with Nash for easy dunks. He is also a very good rebounder and a capable shooter, though he doesn't create shots for himself. And the Suns made a very nice run last year, stopped by the Spurs, after the Spurs took a road game, taking the lead 3-2 and going home, (but with Amare and Diaw suspended for leaving the bench during an altercation, the Suns had a smaller chance to even the series). And though they were unhappy this year, the Suns are walking around with the best record in the stronger conference. Marion, who is by most accounts a very nice man, is also insecure and troubled by his lack of appreciation (3rd star status) in the Phoenix organization. Perhaps Marion doesn't recognize that he is always among the most coveted fantasy basketball players in the league, and perhaps that would sate some of his desires to be recognized.

But, even in the deal where he is likely the best player being traded, Marion is taking the second star status. Shaq is more than a powerful man with great charisma, who used to have great quickness and basketball ability. He is more than the experience, leadership, and rings he brings to the team (or even a record of consistent reform). He is a winner. He brings wins. Since 1991, Michael Jordan, Shaq, or Tim Duncan have been in EVERY single championship series, except 1 (Hakeem vs. Ewing.) That is, in 16 of the past 17 years, 1 of these 3 guys has been in the finals. I remind you Michael Jordan has long since retired (for the 3rd time, which I am told is a charm.) Oh, and in case, you were wondering, these 3 guys, never on the same team (obviously) and never against each other (less obviously) won 14 of those 17 years. So, yeah, Camby might have been a better fit with the team and for their defense in general, or maybe even Jermaine Oneill, but wouldn't you give this guy a shot?

So, you must be asking yourself, "why is Papa Bear bringing this up? Who cares if Jordan won a bunch of times around 15 years ago and Shaq won a bunch of times around 5-10 years ago. He's done now, right?" Well, historically, some centers have remained productive for a very long time, and even if he's not fully productive, and he can only be 2005 Miami Heat championship productive, wouldn't that be way more than enough to propel an excellent team to a championship. Some centers reduced their role like Kareem who was much less of a factor when the Showtime Lakers were pushing the ball up the floor. But, his presence and half court offense helped. Or what about Wilt, who totally transformed into a passer, averaging over 10 assists per game when his scoring ability declined. What about the Chief, roaming around the league giving his all and just being a steady presence in his elder years.

So, Miami is excited to get rid of Shaq's unmotivated rotund behind and move his very expensive salary for pieces that they might be able to use (by turning Marion into Pippen, except that Wade is no Jordan and Marion is no Pippen. If I were them, I would trade Marion as soon as I could for pieces that could help the team become great because they just got great value, but not sure it propelled the reeling team.) Phoenix could have just made a deal to make the team true contenders in the last few years of Nash's reign to give him the physical support to curb Duncan, Bynum, Yao, et al. So, just like everything else, time will tell, and just like the Democratic Super Tuesday results, I am not sure anyone really lost.

Speaking of Lost, as I always do, I have to admit, even though I am not that intrigued by the new characters, I am fascinated by who they are and each of their unique gifts. As always, I direct you to the definitive article on analyzing Lost, Jeff Jensen's comprehensive EW column and for your reading pleasure, www.melanism.com for more insight into the matter. But, as always, I am not about insight or incite, I am about cold hard facts, and totally random guesses.

SPOILERS BELOW if you have not seen the most recent episode, Confirmed Dead, which aired on February 7, 2008 at 9:00 p.m. EST, and don't want to have unhelpful information, which may only confuse you.

Let's start with who these fresh off the boat people are. My best guess is they are the remnants of the Dharma Initiative or some group trying to get a hand on the information that they had. Benjamin Linus was the last survivor of the Dharma project on the island, so he would have valuable information about the projects.
More importantly though, the people on the island died by a gas attack, (which they might know if they know Benjamin Linus survived), so they would be prepared both with guns and with gas masks to take on the hostiles. If they are the remnants of Dharma, they would know about the unique properties of the Island, so they would bring a physicist, some sort of either archaeologist/zookeeper/biologist, and a ghost whisperer (along with a drunk pilot who nobody would believe.)
I like the Doc Jensen proposed theory that the female on the crew, Charlotte, (not named Naomi) has been on the island before and is the daughter of Ben's old girlfriend.

Michael is a popular theory about the man on the boat, but I'm really rooting for it to be Minkowski. I hope they stop adding people though, switching Minkowski with someone else. Do, I have to get used to her voice after I had just gotten over being annoyed at his voice? I liked the reappearance of the "Oceanic attorney" as the guy in charge of the non-rescue operation, even though the drunk pilot knew that the crash was staged.

So, the next question is who staged it (assuming this is not an alternate reality or a split time scenario), and the most obvious answer is the Dharma Initiative hiding their product (the Island). The less obvious answer is Benjamin Linus who does not want people coming and going off this Island and would want an end to the search party.

What are these scientists studying? Doc Jensen says either time travel (chronoportation?) or teleportation (space travel, well from one space to another). A combination of those fits the lady's joy in seeing the polar bear in the desert, and supports why Richard (Benjamin's chief counsel and adversary among the hostiles did not age a day from the day Ben met him until the day Ben was, well... now).
But, they chose Faraday, (the real life physicist/ chemist was an electricity and magnetism specialist, while this fake one is un-pigeon-holed upon his request,) who was not a time travel person instead of making a reference to H.G. Wells or even Isaac Asimov (like Heroes did with their future specialist).

But, now that there are only at most 46 more episodes left, I hope they stop introducing new characters, and keep answering questions. But, I applaud Cuse/Lindeloff combo for making an excellent start to their journey with some answers like the boat was after Benjamin Linus, the aircraft was found with all the survivors dead, (as Naomi, who was a liar, said). And, they added bits of wonderment like seeing Ben's face when Hurley knew where the cabin was or Kate's face when Jack winked at her and then discussed the winking in front of Juliet.

But, my favorite moment of the episode was a minor one, when Sayid asked what Ben meant when he said that the boat was there to kill every last person on the Island. She turned to him and said (paraphrased,) "it means he's a liar. {Pause.} Or they are here to kill every last one of us. How many guns do you have?" It perfectly describes one of my favorite and the most intriguing characters on the show, a man who fully admits he is manipulating people, but he is able to continue to do it because of his intellect, his manner, and/or people still trusting his underlying motivations. And, even as I sit here today, I still tend to believe there is at least partial truth in just about everything this guy says. Great acting and great writing, I suppose, but don't you believe him too?

And what was your favorite allusion made by this team? Me? I always like a good versus evil allusion and always like references to a fallen Lucifer because it adds a little something to every character's wrong doing. But, their Island paradise of a few weeks earlier, well, it's los... it's done now.

I want to hear from you America, the bloglines are open,
ME, the deserted Polar Papa Bear