NBA 2010

On the eve of basketball playoffs, it's time to make predictions and take stock of the season. So, below, feel free to peruse some inane NBA discussion or skip it and wait for my next rant.

Before I get into the finals, I want to discuss the fall of some of the best players (and then some of my favorite players.)

LeBron James- is the best basketball player in the world. Kobe Bryant is better in some ways including: Kobe is a more well-rounded scorer, he's more maniacally competitive and despite what the statistics might say, he is a better closer. However, LeBron's height, strength, speed and willingness to share the ball make him a better player. I have little doubt that if LeBron were on the current Lakers in place of Kobe, the Lakers would be in the same position right now (and they would be favored in the finals.) If Kobe were on the current Cavs, I believe that Cavs team would have a worse regular season record and would have lost in the first or second round.

The LeBrons had a great regular season for the second year in a row, so expectations from LeBron's Cavs were at an all time high. But... the coaching for the Cavs was bad because even though Mike Brown is a good defensive coach, he has yet to manage an effective offensive scheme. Moreover, the acquisition of Jamison was over-hyped. When Kobe's Lakers got Pau Gasol for nothing, the Lakers got the best player on a bad team. When the LeBrons got Jamison for nothing, they got arguably the third best player from a terrible team. I like Jamison for his quick release post-up shot, but... he's a liability on defense and more importantly terribly overrated as a long-range shooter. And he shoots from long range a LOT of the time. Essentially, he's a much more likable version of Antoine Walker. It did not help that Jamison declined in the playoffs. Similarly Mo Williams, who is touted as an all star, is a streaky (but good) outside shooter with little other discernible basketball ability. It didn't help that he had maybe 1 decent game in the Celtics series and was eaten alive by Rondo. Moreover, Shaq and Ilgauskas are basketball-old, Varejao is a very limited player, Hickson is just not that good yet and whomever the LeBrons started at shooting guard, Parker or West, was ostensibly a bench player.

These are all excuses I am making because I like LeBron, but they are very convincing excuses. And the only reason they had 60 wins and had ridiculously high expectations is because people, including me, continue to believe that LeBron James is an exception to traditional basketball rules. Michael Jordan broke the mold with his stellar play and even he had Scottie Pippen, an all time great player by his side. Further, LeBron's ability to get his teammates to play together because of his point-forward role, his cavalier demeanor and his glee at playing basketball is only part of great basketball chemistry. Part of team chemistry is that sharing a love of the game, but the far more important part of it, is seizing the moment because of a shared will to win. LeBron has not consistently shown that yet. I suspect that if LeBron can manage to win a first championship, a big if, then he will add this final addition to his arsenal (a post-game would be helpful, but is not necessary.)

(Speaking of Michael Jordan, people are starting the Kobe-Jordan comparisons again and still they are ludicrous. Let's start with Kobe's positives: he's a prolific scorer, a ferocious defender, has developed into a solid, though not, affable team leader, he has multiple scoring titles, an MVP, many other years high in the running for MVP, he has seven championship appearances and by the end of this year, he will have either four or FIVE championship rings. It seems to stack up very well against anyone including Jordan, EXCEPT that Jordan has six championships and on EACH of them he was the team's best player, while Bryant was only the best player for ONE championship so far (along with the two championship series losses.) Kobe is a great scorer, but Jordan's LIFETIME field goal percentage teetered around 50% (Kobe had 1 season that high) and that is only because Jordan's percentage dropped to Kobe levels in the two years he returned to basketball for the Wizards after his second retirement in his late 30's. Jordan's substantially higher shooting percentage occurred in an era that permitted hand-checking and very rough fouls at the basket.

Kobe was probably the best player in basketball for a few assorted years of his career, not including a patch when O'neal was better, another patch when Duncan was better and a recent patch when LeBron was better. Jordan was the best player in basketball for most of his career, probably even in the late 80's when he took on great teams pretty much on his own: including the Celtics, a team filled with legends and the Pistons, a team uniquely constructed to physically beat Jordan into submission. As for the '90s, any argument that a player was better for any given year (or got an MVP award) was merely conciliatory. Whether it was Drexler, Malone, Robinson, Barkley, Olajuwon or Payton, no player was better any year that Jordan played for a whole year. Then, there's the playoffs, where Jordan somehow managed to improve dramatically. Kobe historically, has remained around the same in the playoffs as he is in the season, with highs and lows (more highs recently than lows.)

All of these factors are discounting team leadership, which is difficult if not impossible to quantify, but an area that Kobe took over 10 years to develop. Kobe's team in what should have been the prime of his career missed the playoffs in a year Kobe was fully healthy. I can't imagine Jordan doing the same. Furthermore, while Kobe is one of the best, if not the best player today in closing situations, Jordan was at least as good. Statistically, Kobe is only average with the ball in his hands late in close games, but that belies his excellence. Still Jordan was the same type of player and either way, if I am an opponent, I would still rather Kobe or even Jordan shoot with the game on the line than Reggie Miller or Robert Horry in each of their respective primes. That doesn't make them better than Kobe or Jordan.

I'm not saying Jordan will never ever be surpassed. I'm also not saying that Kobe won't be the guy to do it, but if Kobe does do it, he will have to either improve his game over the next 5-10 years so much that he spends the next several years as the unquestionably most dominant player in basketball or he could pile on statistics and championships so high that the accumulation would make him some hybrid of Russell's championships and Kareem's accumulated statistics. The reason I occasionally argued that LeBron had Jordan potential is because he plays a somewhat different brand of basketball than Kobe and Jordan, and along with his unique combination of height, speed, strength and court vision (as discussed above,) he could circumvent Jordan's shadow rather than hoping to topple it like Kobe has tried to do and, as of yet, has fallen woefully short of doing.

Instead, Kobe is really aiming at a slightly less distant goal of catching Magic Johnson as the best Laker of all time. If he wins this year, he matches the championships and his teams have never been as amazing as those Showtime Lakers. If he wins this one and one more, i think Kobe will have a case against Magic. I'd probably still pick Magic, but if Kobe ends his career with 6 rings, which is possible, that will be a realistic question. Though, as I mentioned above, Kobe plays a similar brand of basketball to Jordan, while LeBron plays more like Magic.)

Thus, we saw LeBron play against the Celtics and basically shut down Pierce, the Celtics most versatile weapon (forcing Rondo and Allen to beat them.) James played several regal games and one cosmic stinker (where he didn't seem to try, but that's not terribly uncommon even among basketball's mega-stars, see Kobe Bryant Phoenix a few years ago.) They lost to a great team. The defeat itself is no great shame, but the shame is in the cumulative post-season results of his first 7 years in the league and more specifically viewing the decline of his team's playoff performance over the past three years.

But, if LeBron plays for another two years either with Cleveland or somewhere else, at his current level of excellence, without winning a title, it will create an interesting situation. He will be a 27-year old with the moniker of the Greatest Player of All Time to Not Have a Championship. It's a terrible moniker, so he should really try to win a championship soon.

So, where should he go? Personally, I have been sad for all the Cleveland fans who have practically been crying in the street for the last month for financial reasons as well as an emotional attachment to a home-grown hero. Though, even if they get Bosh, I'm not sure how much better the Cavs would be with this poorly-constructed team. James is concerned about his legacy, which is why I think going to Miami would be a mistake. If he went to Miami, he might be perceived as Scottie Pippen to an already-titled Wade (if they both went to a neutral location together, it would probably be different because they would be starting relatively fresh.) He might go to Chicago, but even if they get Bosh to add post-play, there is no outside shooter to space the floor and teams could guard them by packing the inside. He might go to New York, but only if Wade came OR if Bosh+Joe Johnson joined him, otherwise there is just not enough talent to legitimately compete for a championship. Ditto for New Jersey who have a talented, but totally ineffective core as of now. Here are some other alternatives though: how about Dallas which is a major city with an owner willing to spend crazy amounts of money to promote LeBron endlessly and where the team has a passing point guard, outside shooting and size. He could play particularly well alongside Dirk Nowitzki who could play inside or out, especially if they import another veteran player to add toughness. How about Orlando though? James could play alongside Dwight Howard and have an all-time great defensive team+if the Magic did not have to mortgage their whole team to get him, they would also have outside shooting and a deep bench. Those are just some ideas. I'm sure he'll be fine either way.

Dwayne Wade- plays more like Jordan than anyone in the game today with his relentless driving to the hoop. I have Wade as the only other player in the James, Kobe discussion for the best player in the game. I got the sense that Wade will stay in Miami, particularly if the Heat pulled a major acquisition or two, such as Bosh or Boozer or both.

(By the way, I really like the idea of the best players having a summit to discuss how to carve out the NBA empire over the next few years. If LeBron, Wade, Johnson, Bosh and Stoudemire pooled their resources and started a team together as co-owners, took minimal salaries and recruited a few role players... it could be the best team of all time or an epic, albeit entertaining disaster.)

The current Miami team needs help, but if they trade away Beasley to get one great player in return, it's almost certainly not enough for this porous team to compete for a championship. Besides I still think Beasley could be a really good third best player on a team.

Dwight Howard- is a defensive force to be reckoned with. Look at the rest of Orlando. Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis are all roughly average defenders and yet the team is one of the two or three best defensive teams in basketball. Some people underrate the power of the blocked shot by pointing out that there is often no change of possession, but a blocked shot is a powerful psychological tool that prevents people from driving the lane and alters future shots. As Howard's offensive game improves and the rest of the team gels, this team's potential continues to grow.

Chris Bosh, A'mare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer are all probably going to change teams. If Wade stays in Miami, one of the big guys will probably meet him there. Another of the big guys will probably go with LeBron, wherever he ends up. While Bosh and Stat are all-stars, neither of them can carry a team, so it would behoove them to go to established teams. The only other team I'd like to see with one of these players is Chris Paul's Hornets if just to see what he can do with the slightly over-rated West and another quality player.

Now, to my favorite players:

Vince Carter- people always ask me why he's my favorite player. Well, the easy answer is as a Knicks fan prior to the team's early post-Ewing implosion, when they got rid of all of my favorite players, I followed my previous favorite player, Charles Oakley to Toronto. Carter was a physical marvel with incredible athleticism and a great outside shot. I was sold though with a rumor I heard that during his rookie year, Carter apparently prayed during the Star-Spangled Banner every game, but not for a win... instead he prayed that everyone would make it through the game without harm. It's not the most competitive prayer, but by all accounts, he is a good guy and I root for good guys. At that point, he was beloved because of his dunking ability, but he got his first bout of major criticisms when in the conference semi-finals, game 7, he decided to attend his college graduation before his finals game, which required travel. It was a momentous event and a grand opportunity to show the importance of education to all his children admirers. I can understand why people could be upset that he valued something over his job, especially a job that so many people are so passionate about, but I cannot understand the vitriol over the decision to be a positive role model.

The next dose of criticism was that he was soft and did not want to get hit driving down the lane (thus limiting the value of amazing athleticism,) and this is true. But this is not new. There are a few brave souls that drove the lane with regularity like Jordan and Kobe and Wade, but for every one of those courageous pioneers that succeeded, there were scores of them that spent their careers with frequent injuries like Mark Price, Penny Hardaway and Grant Hill. It's not a great excuse, but Carter's outside shot was really good, so it was often easy, if not ideal, for him to opt to avoid injury to his brittle body. And even though he did not drive as often as Kobe, McGrady or Pierce, his field goal percentage was always around the same as his competition because his outside shot was so good, and he also managed to get to the free throw line almost as frequently as the others did and had just about as many assists as they did too. With the exception of his last year in Toronto, his poor teams always over-performed and never under-performed.

He spent years dedicating himself to Toronto basketball and the Toronto community including starting a charitable organization there, but when the team failed to support him with additional players, he had a natural reaction. He slacked off. It's lame, but again, it's natural. In fact, it would be unnatural to keep putting your body on the line for an organization that does not support you. So, Carter got traded and his honesty about slacking off made him the most hated man in Toronto. He then spent a few years playing for a mediocre Nets team, which totally fell apart the second he left.

What about Orlando? Are they better off with Turkoglu than Carter? Not this year. Turkoglu was terrible in Toronto, far worse than Carter this year and 1000 times worse than Carter when he was in Toronto. Besides, Turkoglu quit on the Raptors much much worse than Carter ever did, but there has been no stink about that. AND they very narrowly missed the playoffs, meaning if he was just average, they would almost certainly have made the playoffs. Orlando was missing some height advantages that they would have had with Turkoglu, which could have helped them against the Celtics, BUT they barely won a 7 game series against the Celtics last year and Garnett was not even available in that series. Now, despite the record, with the way the Celtics were playing, Orlando was not the favorite, considering Garnett was back, the whole team relatively healthy and they acquired Rasheed Wallace, who had a terrible season, but is an excellent Dwight Howard stopper (who would relieve Perkins, maybe the only other 1 on 1 Howard stoppers in the league.) So, Orlando was not winning this series with Turkoglu or without him. Another fallacy about Carter is that he shrinks from the pressure. He made my case harder by missing two key free throws this year that could have put them closer to winning game 2 of the Celtics series, but historically, he is a better than average clutch player. He is also not reluctant to take the shot and frequently took over games for Orlando during the regular season. Moreover, he has not shrunk from playoffs in the past, including some dominant post-season games in Toronto.

He's older now, so while he's still dangerous, he's more limited and streaky. Despite the decline, he's at least as good as Turkoglu was the prior year. His defense is also better than Turkoglu's defense. So, Orlando made the right move getting Carter and would not have a better result had they kept Turkoglu. But, don't get me wrong, as much as I like Carter, I'm not saying he's a Hall of Famer. However, if he was a major contributor on a championship team, I think that would solidify his case.

Tim Duncan- was the best player in basketball for a long time. He was the best defender in the league for a long time. He is the best power-forward in NBA history. He won 4 championships as the best player on his team, but he has declined. His defense has lost a step. He can still have a dominant performance, but without any regularity. I just don't think the Spurs as constituted are good enough to win a championship with someone other than Duncan as their best player. They could use a major acquisition.

Lakers vs. Celtics- is a classic match-up with lots of bad blood, both historically and between the individuals on those two teams. Russell vs. Chamberlain, Bird vs. Magic and now umm Kobe vs. Celtics... makes it the best rivalry in basketball history and one of the best rivalries in sports history. They both have good chemistry and championship poise; they both play good defense and have multiple offensive weapons.

Both teams have reasons to be confident. The Lakers are the defending champions. The Celtics lost last year, almost entirely because Garnett was out, but he's back now (and have not lost a series with this starting 5.) Lakers have home-court advantage and are undefeated at home this playoffs. The Celtics are the only team with a better road record than home record. The Lakers now have Artest to guard Pierce who crushed them two years ago. Celtics, Rondo has improved. Rondo is mildly hurt. Sheed is playing well. Sheed is hurting. Nate Robinson had a good game. Bynum is playing. Bynum is hurt. Odom is the best 6th man in the series. Boston has a deeper bench. Kobe is 1 of the best players in the game today and the best player in the series + Gasol is one of the best big men in basketball. The Celtics have 4 future hall-of-famers and all of them are still really good on both offense and defense (including a slasher/distributor, a shooter, a slasher/shooter and post-play.) Both teams have 2 closers, Fisher, Pierce, and perhaps the two most clutch players in the game, Kobe and Ray Allen.

What about outside factors? Phil Jackson is Phil Jackson. Doc Rivers has long been an underrated coach. The 3 games in a row is tough for a road team, but less travel helps the older team. At the end of the day, I have no idea. I usually have a good sense of these things and I'm right like 75% of the time. That's not great, but basketball usually has a favorite and/or match-up favorites. But, here the teams are 1-1 in the regular season and neither of them had a particularly difficult road to the finals. So, what else is there? I have no clue. This could be a 5-game blow-out either way or a 7 game squeaker... either way.

Now, onto my biases, while I admire Kobe, I root against him. And while I like Ray Allen, Boston is probably the dirtiest, whiniest team in basketball. So... these are two of my least favorite teams in the NBA. I guess I'm rooting for the Celtics, but my bias is really against both teams.

I'm going to guess Celtics in 6, but that's more of a gut-feeling based on 2008's results.

The World Cup is coming up and I have even fewer predictions in that, though I hear Spain is a force, so I'm blindly guessing they will win (and guessing the Spanish Nadal wins the French Open in a surprising twist.) Though I read somewhere that there is a bizarre Northern vs. Southern hemispherical home-field-esque advantage (maybe because of weather patterns or something,) so I am probably wrong. Though, I also predict Messi will have an awesome cup, or at least I'm hoping he will because I like when people live up to expectations and really dislike when people choke. But, most importantly, I'm going to call that the US makes it to the quarter-finals.

That's all the sports I've got right now,
ME


PS: The only reason I have any interest at all in seeing The Karate Kid is because a song from the trailer is the one that serves as the pump-up song for EA Sports, NBA Live 2006. Even so, I am not going to see it.