Dream Team?

Dear reader,

I am surprised by LeBron's choice to go to Miami. I previously explained my take on his different options. After hearing his Decision, even after ESPN's warning, my first thought was how horrible this ordeal was for the city of Cleveland. My next thought was that LeBron was foregoing a potential legacy as a top 5 player of all time in exchange to play a super-charged Scottie Pippen to Dwayne Wade's lesser Michael Jordan. I went through the stages of grieving even though nobody died, nobody was gone forever and heck, I'm not even a Cavs fan. I can only imagine what Cleveland was going through. The only thing I lost was-some degree of respect for a young man I greatly appreciated. But now, with some time to process most of my feelings on the matter, I sought an outlet to relay some of my racing thoughts.

In Defense of LeBron James:
Let's start with the fact that LeBron raised millions of dollars for charity. Sure, he created a spectacle that was the height of hubris, but he channeled that spectacle for a good cause. Let's not forget this act of charity, even in the darkest corners of our minds.

Further, despite the fury directed towards LeBron, he committed no crime. He was accused of committing no crime. Nothing he did was against the law, nor was it against some societal norm. There was no accusation that he cheated on his wife like many other athletes have, even if Cleveland fans feel cheated. He violated no contract; his contract expired and he decided to take a different job. Gosh-darned it, he didn't even lie about any of it. At no point did he make any commitment to his fans that he would play the rest of his career in Cleveland. At most, he said he would like to or love to finish his career in Cleveland, but he always qualified those statements with his primary goal of winning championships... but we'll get to that soon enough.

He forfeited money to play in Miami. A rough estimate is that LeBron could have made a salary of $125 million to sign with Cleveland than any other team. To sign anywhere else, the maximum salary he could make is $30 million less (with one less year.) That's $30 million in guaranteed money. By playing in Miami, alongside Wade and Bosh, he has to take even more of a pay cut, at least another $5 million off the amount they could pay him... $35 million less guaranteed salary than he could make in Cleveland. As I mentioned in my previous post, there are caveats to these salary estimates.

1) LeBron will likely play more than 5 years at a very high level and thus that 6th (extra) year he will likely be paid by some team, an amount around $20 million, which would offset his $35 million lost potential income. 2) Florida does not have income tax, which would save LeBron close to $7 million over the course of the deal. (I'm not counting income tax over the course of future contracts because (a) he may leave Florida after the contract expires and (b) because there is a great chance if he decided to stay in Cleveland, he would leave Cleveland after the 6 year-contract was up, particularly because he might be hungry for titles.) 3) A new collective bargaining agreement will be harsher on players, including lower increases in the maximum salary he could earn as well as a lower salary cap, making it harder for him to earn money in the future. So, that sixth year and beyond, he will likely earn less money over the course of future contracts. 4) That 6th year will be the base amount for his next contract, which will be over $2 million lower than he could have had if he resigned with Cleveland. That means every year of his future contracts, his salary can only increase by a fixed percentage from one year to the next, and he's losing out on more than $2 million per year. So, after this contract, if he signs for 5 more years, he probably loses another $10-12 million on his next contract alone because of signing with the Heat now. (i.e. if the maximum he could get paid on a year by year basis increases something like Yr. 1: $17M- Yr. 2: $18M- Yr. 3: $19M- Yr. 4: $20M- Yr. 5: $21- Yr. 6: $22M in Cleveland vs. Yr. 1: $15M- Yr. 2: $16M- Yr. 3: $17M- Yr. 4: $18M- Yr. 5: $19M in Miami. Then if he signs with Miami, his next contract will start at $20M in his 6th year and proceed $2M lower each year from then on. Additionally, because these numbers operate on percentage growth not $1M per year increases, the amount in prospective losses, increases marginally every year.

So, by my non-scientific estimate, based on the facts and figures and patchwork, if he plays less than 5 years, he lost $28 million in extra salary income. If he plays more than 5 years, he gets paid for that 6th year now, so that offsets most of his losses. But after that 6th year, the longer his career, the more he lost/loses in prospective income (just by signing this current lesser deal with the Heat.) Hence, assuming he plays for 10 years, which is fairly conservative, then my guess is he loses about $15 million. You may be saying, that's nothing, but tens of millions of dollars is not nothing. $10 million could buy him or his family something important to them or it could go to charity or it could be used to hire more people to assist him and give people jobs OR as savvy business people know, every dollar is a potential investment into something much more lucrative.

[Update: New reports indicate that both Cleveland and Toronto made the smart business decision and agreed to sign and trade deals to get trade exceptions for themselves, but also permitted LeBron, Bosh (and Wade) more money under the Collective Bargaining Agreement Rules. They are accepting a 6-year $110 million dollar salary. This means that the 6th year issue is no longer in play. So, LeBron is turning down $15 million in guaranteed money, though $7 million would be paid for Ohio State taxes, for a total net loss of $8 million guaranteed money. The calculation of losses from future contracts continues to be a loss of over $2 million per year for the reasons stated above. Thus, if he is still playing at a very high level at age 31 and signs one single 5 year contract. (Again taxes on that contract do not come into play because we do not know where he will sign or where he would have signed had he been playing for Cleveland.) The signing of this contract would lose him over $10 million off the maximum salary he could earn in that next future contract. So, other than his loss of guaranteed money, the rest of the calculations of his losses remain the same; over the course of his career, he is likely to lose over $15 million by signing this contract with the Heat.]

Some of you are saying, he can make this up in endorsements by going to Miami. Maybe... if he had gone to New York, the biggest market or if he had gone to New Jersey in the presence of an international billionaire and rap mogul who could advertise the heck out of him with unlimited resources... maybe if he had gone to Chicago, he could have won a few championships on a good team and marketed himself as the leader of a championship team. He would bring Jordanesque excitement to a major market (Jordan's market, which made Jordan the most financially successful player ever) and earn more than in Cleveland because the team, unlike Cleveland, was good and could brand him as a champion.

What about Miami? Presumably, he has an even better chance to win in Miami than Chicago, but as Russian billionaire Nets owner pointed out in his notes, playing alongside a superstar of Wade's caliber would tarnish LeBron's brand. I agree with Prokhorov, but I'll start with my limited counter-argument. My favorite economic theory is the principle of minimum differentiation. It's the reason Starbucks always puts a Starbucks right next to another Starbucks. Dunkin Donuts does the same thing. McDonald's and Burger King are often located very near each other. Why? Because when these similar brands and companies are located near each other, that spot becomes the place to go for McDonald's. You want Chinese food? Go to Chinatown. You put similar powerful brands next to each other and that becomes the place to go for that specific commodity. Hence, Miami will be that for basketball, along with L.A. and a few other places. The idea is that if you put a really good player like Gasol next to a great player like Kobe, both players get more out of it. And think of jersey sales. Similarly, consumers buy the jerseys of winners in part because the NBA markets them more. Imagine how much the basketball world will revolve around Miami if these entertaining players win championships together.

Despite my disfigured version of my favorite economic theory, I still think Prokhorov is right. If they don't win titles, they don't market LeBron alone. And more likely, when they do win championships, THEY DON'T MARKET LEBRON ALONE. So, if Chicago won the title with LeBron on the team, they market LeBron's shoes and his gatorade and his sandwiches. If Miami wins, the message is diluted, buy LeBron's shoes and Wade's gatorade and Bosh's sandwiches.

But, my point here is... LeBron knowingly "sacrificed" money in favor of an increased likelihood of winning championships, definitely from salary and almost definitely from endorsements.

But, that's not the only thing he gave up. In order to play with Dwayne Wade, he had to give up part of his ego. Sure, he made a spectacle of himself the last few days and distinguished himself from Wade and Bosh by placing himself in the spotlight over the two of them, but that's the last time he's going to be doing that for awhile. His Decision, like his play on the court, was unselfish.

1) Wade is a Miami hero, who brought the team a title already. 2) He was a Finals MVP. 3) Then Wade decided to return out of a sense of loyalty. 3) He also demonstrated his leadership by bringing LeBron with him. 4) It's very likely Wade will be the leading scorer on the team, as a former scoring champion and factoring LeBron's somewhat superior skills as a passer. 5) As a person with championship experience (and who is slightly older,) Wade will likely by the team leader in the huddles because he has successfully acted in that role before. 6) Wade will very likely get more of the clutch shots because while LeBron is good at those shots, Wade is better. 7) And this is all assuming no one gets injured or perhaps almost as bad, that no one gets jealous.

LeBron is not a fool, despite your current opinion of him. He recognizes at least most of these things above and he's doing the best to spin it in a way that makes it sound humbling without harming his brand as a powerful individual force. But, he must know that some people perceive that he has accepted the role of Scottie Pippen in this scenario. So, however formidable his ego may be, as evidenced by The Decision, he is foregoing some of that ego for championships.

Maybe most importantly though, LeBron likes to play basketball, as evidenced by his exuberance, his powder throwing and his dancing on the court. Moreover, he loves to play basketball alongside great players. It must feel like something special for a great player to play with another great player. In the recent Magic Johnson-Larry Bird HBO documentary, the two of them discussed how in their youth, they played together one time and they remembered that game until today. The two of them barely talked, but watching the two or three clips of them on the court together exchanging incredible passes, probably made basketball seem, not like a job, but like a fun game. The bottom line is, LeBron loves playing with these guys and he likes these guys personally. (I always thought he was closer to Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony, but he made a decision to play ball with these friends.) LeBron did not owe his career to Cleveland and leaving Cleveland was a smart basketball move. He is also going to a party town with nice weather to play basketball with his close friends and probably win many championships. How do you fault someone for that?

As for non-LeBron matters... this is a basketball experiment as well as a phenomenon. The two best basketball players on the same team (Wade may well be third best, but the point is just about the same.) How good can they be? You can make a case that the two best basketball players were on the Celtics or Lakers in the 50's or 60's, but I'd argue against it, without knowing enough about it. You could argue for Kareem and Magic, but by the time Magic was the best player, Kareem was past his prime and just a very good to great player. You could argue Shaq-Kobe, but that would be foolhardy because you would be forgetting how great Duncan was (and a handful of other people) before Kobe became a top 5 level player. They also have Bosh who is a top 10 player and it seems like they will soon have Mike Miller a very good player (excellent shooter.) So, it's not exactly crap around these two. But, it's built like Jordan-Pippen... with Wade not as good as Jordan and LeBron better than Pippen. Either of them could play point-guard, and either of them can guard a couple of different positions. So, they are very flexible as well as being great talents. They both claim to value team efforts and demonstrate it by averaging a large number of assists for non-point guards. So, the predictions for a team like this will vary from winning 5 straight championships to winning 0 championships because there will be so much junk around them and/or there is only one ball etc. (My guess is 3 championships over the 5 year contract.)

They have created a mega-team where there was not one before. People loved the 80's Celtics or Lakers. People loved or hated the 90's Bulls or the Shaq Lakers. It garners interest in the NBA. The fact that LeBron left the Cavs further helps the business everywhere but Cleveland (though it's devastating in Cleveland.) Maybe the Lakers-Heat will be a rivalry or Orlando-Heat will be a rivalry or... well you get the picture. The Decision created a lot of grudges, but also brought a lot of attention. People that don't care about basketball were riveted by this decision, for no discernible reason other than this was good television. The fact that it seemed like such a big deal made it a very big deal. That's art for you.

The MVP vote is up for grabs. LeBron and Wade will probably cancel each other out in the voting. Front-runners include Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony. If LeBron stayed in Cleveland, kept winning 60+ games without any other stars on his team, it would be utterly unfair to hand the trophy to anyone else. Now, it's a game again.

The experience has demonstrated Wade's awesome leadership skills. He had already won a championship with Shaq past his prime, the relics of Gary Payton and Antoine Walker and several role players, but now he pulled some major voodoo to lead the best player in the world to his team and accept Wade's dominion. People may credit Riley, but really Wade made this seem like a fun idea for LeBron.

To conclude this argument in defense of LeBron, I'd like to compare LeBron to the elder statesmen to whom he is often compared, Kobe Bryant. The following are not knocks on Kobe, but correcting the record, which has been unfairly stacked against LeBron. Dan Gilbert's insane tirade said that LeBron quit on his team against the Celtics. Kobe, the ultimate competitor would NEVER quit on his team. Wrong. Kobe quit on his team in an elimination game against the Suns only a few years ago because he was tired of criticisms that he was shooting too much. He decided to show his critics and his teammates just how valuable he was on offense by not participating AT ALL on offense. They lost a winnable series.

Kobe stuck out through some hard times and was rewarded for his faith in the team-owners and teammates and remained loyal to the Lakers. Wrong. In June 2007, Kobe demanded a trade and suggested a burgeoning Bulls team as the primary location for the trade. He reiterated the trade demand and met with Jerry Buss to facilitate the trade. Kobe bad-mouthed his teammates behind their backs, which further threatened his relationship with the Lakers. Buss knew he would not get value, so Kobe had to wait until his contract expired before he would leave. By that time, the Lakers were better because of LA's resources (including weather and glamor that Cleveland lacks) and front-office competence (that Cleveland lacks) and Kobe decided to stay. By the way, 2007 was about 3 years after Kobe's ego (as well as Shaq's ego) was the reason they were not competing for a title in 2007 because Kobe did not want Shaq on the team (and vice versa.)

Kobe, a staunch personality, would not accept being second fiddle to anyone. Sure, that's true now and for the last 8 years... but Kobe happily accepted the three titles he won as second fiddle to the best player on the planet at that time. Now, he tries not to make a big deal about it other than saying, he has 5 rings, he never includes a caveat that he was the second best player on the first three titles. Almost half the commentators in the world, mostly ignorant commentators, compare Kobe's career favorably to Shaq's career because he has 1 more ring than Shaq. So, by that same logic, if LeBron won 6 rings as a superstar on Wade's team, wouldn't that put him above Kobe? For those morons, it would. More sensible people would consider titles as a factor, but also consider a person's career as a whole to determine a player's historical legacy.

I'm barely going to mention any of the other extra-curricular activities that have garnered Kobe negative attention over the years. The allegations of rape, the admission of infidelity, telling police about Shaq's sexual predilections to get out of jail, publicly deriding his teammates, etc. Nothing suggests that LeBron has gotten involved in any of that, and hopefully has and will continue to steer clear.

(I am not sure why people forget allegations so serious, particularly as quickly as they have with Ben Roethlisburger. Just because it cannot be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, does not mean he did not commit the atrocious act. Roethlisburger's allegations seems even worse because it came with a limited admission that he needs to be more careful about his partying. This is no admission of guilt, but it certainly leaves me suspicious of what he considers partying... (e.g. the attempted rape scene by a football player early in The Last Boyscout. Is that what he meant? That's downright evil.) I'm not saying he did it because I have no idea, but the Kobe allegation led to fan torment for years, while Roethlisburger's main problem right now is proving to his teammates he's committed to football and avoiding riding a motorcycle. The reason it lasted so long against Kobe may be because of race, but- isn't the appropriate response... that the derision should last longer against Roethlisburger and not shorter against Kobe?

But the point is, as a person, as a teammate, and by any other measure, LeBron compares favorably to Kobe, especially when Kobe was at this stage in his career (except for the 3 championships he had, and which LeBron is working on.) LeBron did not owe Cleveland a basketball life sentence. He played 7 magnificent transcendent years there, where he dazzled with individual entertainment feats and by carrying an otherwise unworthy team to the brink of a championship year after year. Instead of being thankful for those years and hopeful that LeBron returns 5 years from now, a few championships richer with championship mettle to take his home town team to the top, they react with fury. They burn his jersey in effigy and the owner, for whom LeBron has earned a great deal of money, lambastes LeBron in crayon to the Cavs audience like a petulant child. If I were LeBron, I would not return. If I were a free agent, I would not want to go to a place where I'm not likely to win championships and when I leave, I am likely to be unappreciated and scorned.

I'm not saying Cleveland did not have a right to be angry. It's a free country and you don't need my permission. Moreover, Cleveland has valid reasons to be upset, but... Cleveland lost the moral high ground and if it's between Cleveland and LeBron, I am on Team LeBron-because if I were LeBron, I would not want to play in a place that hated me so willingly. But, I'm a part of the rest of the country, that believes that even though LeBron is setting a great example by sharing the spotlight and the money, blah blah blah, ultimately, he was wrong.

In Attack of LeBron James:
Let's start with the Cavs organization. He may have had problems with them from Dan Gilbert to Mike Brown to the players, but he played for them for several years and he owed it to them to call them in advance and tell them as soon as he knew he was not returning. Over the course of LeBron's reign, the Cavs tried. In various misguided efforts, they brought "help" for LeBron and tried in bumbling fashion, over and over again, to improve the team. It's not like he owed it to them legally or contractually. He owed it to them as a matter of common courtesy and as a mutually beneficial business-partner for several years. He should have called them up and told them, 'Sorry fellas, you guys are great, but I'm not coming back.'

Second, the Cavs fans. The same thing applies. Even though, he is from Ohio, he did not owe Cleveland his career. He brought a minor business boom to the town for a few years and that boom leaves with him. People will lose jobs, businesses will fold, but it's not his fault... and this would happen whenever he left, whether it was now, 6 years from now or when he retired. LeBron, native son or not, is under no obligation at all to maintain these businesses. He has also done a lot for these communities in the forms of charitable works, contributions and garnering attention, but... despite all that, he could have given them a heads up. If he wanted to continue with the Decision debacle, he should have issued a press-release in advance, so that the Cavs fans could have heard something addressed directly to them. Something like... "While I love the city and the people of Cleveland, my future lies elsewhere. I have not determined where yet, but I had to make the extremely tough decision about whether or not to leave my home, my family's home and my town before I could decide where I will go. Cleveland is great and I hope to someday return, but I feel the urge to win and I don't think I can accomplish that here now. Hopefully, for all our sakes, I can come back here in a few years, with a few championships and a lot more experience and then bring some titles home." Something like that... and I was just spit-balling. The fans would have been pissed about him leaving and they still would have been upset about the attention he was getting for The Decision, but at least, they would not be forced to watch the show and/or could have watched it out of curiosity rather than a remote hope to be quashed.

I do not think LeBron wronged anyone else. He made promises to nobody and nobody made a more attractive offer to him than Miami. So, nobody else should be "angry" at him. But two other things were rather irksome... the overblown spectacle he made of himself with the Decision and the disappointing lack of confidence he had in his own basketball ability.

The spectacle was ludicrous. Why didn't he just have a press conference? Why didn't he release a statement? Why didn't he put it on his new twitter account like the admirable Kevin Durant, who spent the day cheering on Oklahoma City's rookies in a summer league game? He did not have to do any of those things, but this was staged like a bad reality show and it was frustrating. The whole hour was dedicated as a LeBron-love-fest hosted by slobbering ESPN... his immense talents, the great reasons why he would go to Miami, etc. Sports journalism is a joke, but I guess in comparison with political journalism, it's right on par.

I don't blame him for the nicknames of King James or the Chosen One; those monikers were created by others and he uses them for fun as well as marketing. But, he said he was going to South Beach, not to Miami. He's going to the Heat to party and he's promoting the party and self-promoting himself at the party. Before this debacle, his popularity was very high throughout the country and the Decision increased attention to his brand, but to do that, he made himself detested in Cleveland... and he appeared like the prototypical basketball egoist.

But, he's not exactly an egoist, because if he was, he would believe in his ability to lead a team to a championship. Maybe he knew he couldn't win in Cleveland, which I believe, but he could have built a team around himself in New York or New Jersey. He could have walked in and lead a team to a championship in Chicago. But in Miami, he admitted defeat. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. That's what he did.

People will say Magic played with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and no one thought less of him. But, Magic was drafted by the Lakers. He did not choose the Lakers because Abdul Jabbar was there. At the later stages of their careers, it's common for players to sacrifice egos like Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to go to Paul Pierce's team as they are more desperate to win a championship. But, to do that at the age of 25, when the expectations from that 25 year old are legendary amounts to a practical admission that he cannot live up to expectations. He's admitting defeat, admitting failure without having reached his peak yet. Again, I only partially believe this defeat theory because I also believe as I mentioned above, that he enjoys playing with his friends, but I still partially believe his admission of defeat.

(Barkley came out with a statement saying that if he was 25, he would want to be "the guy." Barkley is a terrible example for LeBron because we know what happened with Barkley. He was "the guy" and he lost... over and over again. He got to the finals once, and he lost. LeBron matched that by age 22. Now, LeBron wants to win. Later in his career, Barkley tried pairing with a team that had just won two championships, Olajuwon's Rockets (with Drexler who was on the second championship...) but he failed. That tells us, that if your top priority is not winning championships until you are older, then you may, and are actually likely to, fail. I don't entirely disagree with Barkley's point, but Barkley's career is the counter-example.)

It's admirable that LeBron wants to win above all else, but he's going with the easy way out. He doesn't want to try to beat the best, he wants to join the best. Maybe, they can get more superstars. Maybe the whole team can be an all-star team. Is it exciting? Is it competitive? Does it allow each of them to shine? I don't know, but I would have preferred some awesome duo rivalries: Kobe-Gasol, Wade-Bosh, LeBron-Amar'e, Durant- Westbrook?, Melo-? Howard-? Chris Paul-? DeRon Williams-? etc... Very exciting match-ups, but now, most of these teams must scramble to compete.

The Dream Team:
The Dream Team changed basketball. Watching so many great players playing beautifully, increased the attention of the NBA around the world. Basketball throughout the world improved. We see that at international competitions, we see that with an increased international presence in the NBA and we see that with continued interest (merchandising) around the world. We've known all this for many years. People talk about how Magic-Bird saved the NBA and Michael Jordan with his individual style (skill) and marketing changed the NBA. Well, they were all on one team. And they changed basketball in more than one way.

The Dream Team did something else. It started a precedent that great players join future "Dream Teams." These often great players play together, train together and become friends. Magic and Bird were fierce rivals until the Dream Team. LeBron and Wade became much better players after watching Kobe's intensity during the practices and games. But, more importantly, it's probably so fun playing with great players who are exactly where they are supposed to be... or who are good enough to cover for minor mistakes. Playing with people who are that good makes basketball easy and fun. How do you go from playing on Team USA to playing on a bad Cleveland team or a bad Toronto team? Why would you want to? So, you bring your friends from the Dream Team, play with the best driver in Wade, a top-notch post presence in Bosh and a top shooter in Mike Miller. You played with all of these guys on Team USA, you trust them and you like them.

Good for Basketball, Bad for LeBron:
All in all, these super teams are good for basketball. As I keep mentioning, these mega-teams garner massive amounts of attention beyond casual basketball fans. Some will tune in to appreciate the greatness of the two best players in basketball who are as unselfish as they are athletic, while others will tune in to root against this practically unfair pairing. Moreover, other teams will have to find ways to respond by creating their own interesting mega-teams.

As for LeBron, people often have short memories about these types of debacles. Cleveland will probably stay angry at him forever. Even though feelings will linger, as long as he changes the subject of the discussion, everyone else will forgive (and probably forget) the massive spectacle he made of himself. How do you change the subject? Win championships. It works for just about everyone. Some people will hate him for a long time, but championships are forgiving. Basically, if LeBron does not want to be hated, he has just about no room for failure. It's a tough situation to be in, but he placed himself in that situation.

Am I going to be rooting for Miami? Probably not. Am I going to be rooting for LeBron? Probably not anymore. But, am I going to be fascinated? Most definitely.

Hope you are too,
ME